The state of New Hampshire collects revenue from sports wagers placed with DraftKings, but officials worry bettors will migrate to new prediction market platforms.
Two things have New Hampshire state Sen. Tim Lang worried. “I do have a bracket. It broke pretty hard,” Lang, a Republican, says about his NCAA men’s tournament picks. He’s also concerned about state revenue. New Hampshire legalized sports wagering in 2019, after the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way for states to legalize and regulate sports gambling. Since then, the state has earned more than $170 million through a partnership with DraftKings.
Lang fears the rise of Kalshi and Polymarket — major players in the fast-growing prediction market sector — could cut into that income. He plans to introduce legislation that would clear the path for New Hampshire to join other states in suing the prediction market companies. “We have a revenue model for our sports betting that allows us to pay for education and other state services that Kalshi is completely going around by avoiding our gaming laws,” Lang says. “They should not be able to skirt our state laws.”
Prediction market firms let customers buy “yes” or “no” futures contracts on outcomes ranging from world events and elections to, crucially for states, sports. Because these companies assert they operate as financial markets rather than sportsbooks, states don’t receive a share of proceeds.
Several states, including Connecticut, Michigan and Washington, are in court with prediction market companies. Arizona brought criminal charges against Kalshi for offering what it says were illegal sports wagers.
Kalshi and Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment for this story. In filings, Kalshi has argued it’s already overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and that complying with 50 different state regimes is untenable. The Trump administration has signaled support for that federal preemption view.
Court rulings so far have been mixed, leaving legal questions unresolved, especially about what counts as sports gambling. “Is sports betting and prediction market synonymous, or are they sufficiently distinct that there should be different treatment under the law? I mean, that’s an open-ended question,” says Michael McCann, director of the University of New Hampshire’s Sports and Entertainment Law Institute.
Even with the prospect of lost revenue, not everyone in New Hampshire wants to crack down. John Stephen, an elected Republican member of the council that oversees state contracts, welcomes the competition. “Companies that are trying to make money, and this entrepreneurial spirit that we have in this country, I value that,” he says.
Todd Bookman is a general assignment reporter for New Hampshire Public Radio.
