Attention has centered on oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war, because the narrow passage carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude and LNG exports. But a less visible and potentially more fragile cargo is fertilizer — and the food supplies that depend on it. Disruption in Hormuz could cascade into higher fertilizer prices, lower crop yields and rising food insecurity in import-dependent countries.
Fertilizer flows through the Gulf are substantial. Maritime intelligence firm Signal Group estimates Gulf producers account for about 20% of traded volumes of key inputs such as ammonia, phosphates and sulfur. Nearly half of global traded urea, the dominant nitrogen fertilizer, moves through the region, and Bloomberg Intelligence puts Qatar’s share of world urea supply at roughly 10%. When QatarEnergy curtailed output after Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan — one of the world’s largest LNG and fertilizer hubs — hundreds of thousands of tons of fertilizer nutrients and precursors were sidelined.
That disruption compounds other shocks to food security over the last six years: the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian farmland and ports in 2022. Since the latest escalation began, fertilizer prices have climbed about 10–30%, although they remain around 40% below the peaks seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The supply-risk is concrete. UNCTAD estimates about 1.33 million tons of fertilizer transit the Strait of Hormuz each month; a 30-day closure would therefore interrupt large monthly volumes and could translate into shortages for nitrogen-dependent crops such as corn, wheat and rice. Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), warns that sustained price increases push farmers to change cropping decisions — switching to less fertilizer-intensive crops or applying less fertilizer — decisions that typically reduce yields and most harm poorer farmers.
The security situation raises the prospect of an effective closure. Despite US statements that the conflict was waning, Iran has fired on multiple vessels in and near Hormuz, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations, and attacks on tankers and container ships elsewhere in the Gulf have been reported. Shipping analysts and commodity houses say the longer Hormuz is unsafe or off-limits, the more fertilizer supply chains will seize up. ING has warned that prolonged disruption would tighten availability for import-dependent regions including Brazil, India, South Asia and parts of the European Union.
Substituting supplies quickly will be difficult. Other major producers — Russia, China, the United States and Morocco — have only limited spare capacity and cannot instantly replace Gulf exports. China has already restricted some phosphate and nitrogen exports, though it may face pressure to ease those curbs. While synthetic nitrogen can technically be made wherever natural gas or coal is available, high energy costs make rapid production increases uneconomic; potash and phosphate supplies are constrained by mineral deposits and cannot be quickly scaled.
Rising oil and diesel prices add another inflationary pressure on food. Fuel underpins nearly every stage of modern agriculture — powering farm machinery, transport, processing and cold chains. With Brent crude trading around $100 per barrel after swings up toward $119.50, diesel prices have spiked: U.S. West Coast diesel rose to about $4.69 per gallon, a roughly 14% jump in two weeks, and diesel in Germany surpassed €2.10 per liter, increasing around 20% in days. Major Asian importers of Gulf oil, including China, Japan and South Korea, are also seeing sharp fuel cost rises. India has pledged measures to freeze retail diesel and gasoline prices to shield consumers and transport operators.
IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva has cautioned that a sustained 10% rise in energy prices for a year could add roughly 0.4 percentage points to global inflation and shave up to 0.2 percentage points from growth. Energy is a large component of food costs — IFPRI analysis has noted it can account for about half of total food production costs — so higher fuel and fertilizer prices feed directly into consumer food bills.
The impacts would be uneven and could be severe in some countries. India is highly exposed, importing up to two-thirds of its nitrogen fertilizer from the Gulf; shortages or price spikes could jeopardize the monsoon planting season and raise production costs for staples that feed 1.45 billion people. Brazil relies on Gulf-sourced urea for roughly 40% of its nitrogen needs; continued disruption would threaten soy and maize yields at a time when global supplies are tight. Many countries in sub‑Saharan Africa already apply fertilizer well below recommended rates; even modest price increases could force smallholders to cut back further, lowering harvests and worsening chronic hunger.
Domestic strains will also increase in the region. Iran entered the crisis with inflation above 40% and already elevated food prices; further disruptions to imports and logistics would deepen hardship. The Gulf monarchies import 80–90% of their food across a broad range of staples, from grains and meat to dairy and edible oils. A prolonged closure of Hormuz could exhaust strategic reserves within months, prompting rationing or forcing more costly rerouting via the Red Sea and around the Gulf of Oman.
In sum, attacks that disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz do more than threaten oil flows: they endanger fertilizer shipments and the wider agricultural supply chain. That combination — constrained fertilizer supply, higher energy costs and limited spare production capacity elsewhere — raises the real prospect of lower yields, higher food prices and deeper food insecurity for vulnerable populations around the world.