The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and LNG flows: roughly one fifth of the world’s seaborne crude passes through it. Recent military strikes involving Iran have raised fears of a shutdown, pushed up prices and prompted buyers to seek alternative supplies, including from African producers.
Could Africa ramp up output quickly enough to calm markets? Analysts say the continent can help, but not fast or broadly enough to replace large Middle Eastern volumes. Robert Kappel, former head of the GIGA Institute, argues Africa’s contribution will be limited in the short term and insufficient in scale to fill a major global gap.
Limited short-term scope, stronger medium-term gas role
Stefan Liebing, managing director at the Africa-focused investment firm Conjuncta, stresses that Africa’s immediate capacity to blunt a supply shock is constrained. However, he and other experts see a clearer medium-term role, especially through natural gas and LNG exports, which have become more attractive to European buyers since 2022 as they look to diversify away from Russian supplies.
Nigeria: potential but no quick fixes
Nigeria, the continent’s largest oil producer, potentially could lift output, but analysts say the country has little spare capacity to tap immediately. The International Energy Agency’s March 2026 report listed Nigeria’s production at about 1.42 million barrels per day and showed zero additional available capacity. Analyst Ayodele Oni notes that current production already reflects Nigeria’s short-term ceiling; there is no fast-activation buffer to meet sudden global demand.
Any meaningful increase in Nigerian crude exports will require substantial investment and time. Obstacles include aging pipelines and other infrastructure, chronic underfunding, security challenges in the Niger Delta and the long lead times for new upstream projects — especially deepwater developments, which can take several years from final investment decision to first oil. Higher world prices alone will not instantly deliver new barrels.
The government has launched measures to boost output. The One Million Barrels initiative aims to reopen shut wells, speed up interventions and cut regulatory delays, while proposed tax changes seek to draw new investment. Still, experts warn there is no ‘quick button’ that will produce large extra volumes overnight.
Refining dynamics: the Dangote effect
Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has historically been weak, leading to crude exports alongside imports of refined fuels. That picture is shifting with the privately owned Dangote Refinery in Lagos, Africa’s largest, processing about 650,000 barrels per day and supplying roughly 60 million liters of fuel domestically each day. Dangote reduces dependence on fuel imports but does not instantly free up large additional crude exports for global markets.
Angola: cautious expansion, limited global sway
Angola, the region’s second-largest producer, left OPEC in 2023 to keep flexibility on production timing and volumes. Luanda is investing to boost oil flows and develop gas for LNG, moves that have increased its appeal to Western investors after recent global supply shocks. Energy expert Flavio Inocencio notes these efforts, while Economy Minister Jose de Lima Massano has warned that higher oil prices are welcome for producers but raise import costs for goods and transport.
Even if Nigeria, Angola and other African producers raised output, their combined share of global oil production is only around 10%, far below the roughly 20 million barrels per day that transit the Strait of Hormuz. That gap makes it unlikely that Africa alone could replace lost Middle East volumes in the near term.
Conclusion
Africa can contribute to easing energy pressures over the medium term, especially by expanding gas and LNG exports and gradually increasing oil production where feasible. But limited spare crude capacity, infrastructure bottlenecks, security risks and long project lead times — together with the continent’s modest share of global output — mean Africa cannot rapidly offset major disruptions in the Middle East. Reforms and investments in countries such as Nigeria and Angola may lift supplies over time, but significant new volumes for world markets will take years, not weeks.
Contributors: Jamiu Abiodun, Ololade Adewuyi and Sandra Quiala. This article was originally published in German.