Razed forests, collapsing fisheries and disappearing pollinators seldom appear on lists of national security threats. Yet a growing body of analysis — including a recent assessment from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) — argues that protecting nature is central to long-term political and economic stability.
Nature underpins the essentials societies require: water, food, clean air and raw materials. DEFRA highlights six critical ecosystem regions — among them the Amazon — that could push past tipping points by mid-century. Collapse of these systems would ripple far beyond their borders, displacing millions, altering weather patterns, worsening water and food scarcity, and increasing competition between states for dwindling resources.
Food insecurity is one of the most immediate dangers. More than a third of global ocean fish stocks are overfished, and over three-quarters of crop production relies on pollinators that are harmed by intensive farming. When ecosystems are degraded, supply shocks become more likely, and such shocks can quickly destabilize societies.
Import dependence makes countries more vulnerable to overseas disruptions. The UK imports about 40% of its food and does not have the agricultural land to sustain current diets without external supplies. In the United States, some estimates put seafood imports between 75% and 90% of consumption. Disturbances in exporting countries can translate into rapid domestic price spikes and shortages. DEFRA argues that restoring and protecting ecosystems strengthens food systems and makes societies more resilient to such shocks.
Financing conservation is as urgent as the ecological work itself. For many indebted countries, short-term income from logging, mining or other extractive activities is hard to resist. Globally, about US$7.3 trillion is spent annually on activities that harm nature — roughly 30 times what is spent on conservation. Advocates say public and private spending must be redirected at scale.
Debt-for-nature swaps are one mechanism that can unlock financing. In these agreements, a creditor restructures or cancels debt while the debtor country commits to funding ecosystem protection or restoration. The approach dates back to the 1980s, when Conservation International bought Bolivian debt in 1987 to help protect the Beni Biosphere Reserve. More recent deals include a 2021 swap in Belize that eased fiscal strain and funneled savings into fisheries management and marine conservation.
Well-designed protections can have far-reaching benefits. Marine sanctuaries can act as nurseries that replenish fish stocks beyond their boundaries, supporting food security for billions. Private investors have shown interest: Legal & General pledged $1 billion to debt-for-nature transactions, attracted by their bond-like returns and environmental impact. Large institutional commitments can reduce risk and scale up deals.
Other initiatives aim to direct capital to forest protection. Proposals such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility would mobilize funds from wealthier nations to countries that commit to conserving tropical forests. Increasingly, foreign assistance and development finance are being framed as tools of national security.
Protecting ecosystems also mitigates climate change: forests and oceans are major carbon sinks. Conserving them lowers the odds of droughts, crop failures and extreme weather events that can trigger instability, mass migration and economic decline.
The human cost is already severe. By 2023, more than 90 million forcibly displaced people lived in places experiencing food crises. DEFRA warns of cascading risks from ecosystem collapse, including exploitation of scarce resources by organized crime, rising political polarization and even the potential for military confrontation.
“You want stable countries with an ability to maintain strong economies and act as effective players in the world,” says Gaia Larsen of the World Resources Institute. Adam Tomasek of the Debt for Nature Coalition adds that investing in nature is a form of insurance: governments can reduce the probability that distant environmental risks will translate into costly domestic crises later.
Framing ecosystem protection as a matter of security reframes conservation from a moral or environmental choice into a pragmatic investment in stability and resilience. Redirecting finance, expanding debt-for-nature arrangements and strengthening international cooperation on forest and ocean protection are practical steps that can lower the likelihood of future crises and make the world safer.
Edited by: Tamsin Walker and Jennifer Collins