Just as hopes rose that a US–Israel conflict with Iran might be winding down, the crisis has taken new turns. US signals of progress toward negotiations and a possible ceasefire have been countered by threats to intensify strikes on Iranian energy and manufacturing sites, while Iran says only a few ships may pass through the Strait of Hormuz and denies any real ceasefire negotiations. Most experts agree: the longer the conflict endures, the greater the damage to energy supplies, inflation and economic stability. Every additional week of disruption raises costs and slows growth. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated that a three-month or longer closure of Hormuz could shave an annualized 2.9 percentage points off global GDP growth in the second quarter.
How quickly trade recovers will depend first on reopening and securing the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil trade, and on how fast oil, gas, fertilizer and container routes can be restored.
Securing the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping companies are unlikely to resume normal crossings until insurance premiums fall and a credible multinational naval escort and security operation is in place. That could include US Navy warships, air patrols and mine‑clearing vessels. NATO European partners — Germany, France and the UK — have signaled willingness to join patrols once active fighting stops. Japan, Australia, South Korea, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are also likely participants.
Mine‑clearing alone could take around two weeks. When Hormuz is considered safe, the backlog of roughly 1,900 stranded vessels — about half carrying oil, LNG or chemicals — could be cleared within days to a few weeks, assuming crew shortages are managed. Even so, daily transit rates will likely be slower than the prewar average of 130–140 vessels per day while escorts and extra precautions remain.
Gradual restart of oil and gas production
Beyond reopening the strait, Gulf producers need assurances the wider security situation is stable. Restarting fields varies by condition: wells running at reduced rates often take two to three weeks to restore; fields fully shut down can require about six weeks to bring back online. The longer facilities sit idle, the more extensive the inspections and maintenance required.
Damage from strikes complicates timelines. The International Energy Agency reported at least 40 critical Gulf energy sites were “severely or very severely damaged” by missile strikes. Some facilities, especially LNG plants, may need repairs stretching into years. Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex — the world’s largest LNG hub that once supplied about a fifth of global LNG — may take up to five years for full restoration, and an immediate portion of its export capacity could be lost long term.
Even where restart is possible, producers will likely ramp output gradually. Bringing refineries, pipelines and processing plants back to full capacity could take several weeks to months depending on damage and spare capacity.
Restarting fertilizer production and container routes
Fertilizer plants require safety checks similar to energy facilities. The Gulf accounts for around 40% of seaborne urea and about 25% of ammonia exports, and supplies critical inputs for phosphate production. Phosphate producers face high costs and may stop production if prices fall too far; restoring reliable supply could take longer than for nitrogen fertilizers.
Container shipping — carrying Gulf-produced goods and linking Asia to Europe — has also been hit. Dubai’s Jebel Ali transshipment hub has seen inbound traffic fall sharply. Europe‑bound vessels additionally face risks at the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait at the Red Sea’s southern entrance, where Houthi attacks have driven most major carriers to avoid the route. Many services have rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant time and cost to voyages.
Wider economic and inflationary effects
Even after the strait reopens and production resumes, the global fallout won’t disappear overnight. Consumers already feel higher pump prices; gasoline and diesel shortages are emerging in Australia, parts of Asia and Africa. Logistics disruptions will become increasingly important over the following two to three months as shortages in fertilizers and other critical inputs affect agricultural yields and manufacturing.
If manufacturing cuts follow, the world risks stagflation: high prices, rising unemployment and weak growth, a situation that could take a long time to resolve. The scale and duration of the conflict, the extent of damage to critical infrastructure, global spare production capacity and how quickly insurers and shipping markets normalize will determine recovery speed.
Bottom line
If fighting ends and an effective multinational security presence can be established, shipping through Hormuz and the bulk of oil flows could begin to normalize within weeks, with the initial vessel backlog cleared in days to weeks. Restarting partially reduced oil fields typically takes 2–3 weeks; full restarts after complete shutdowns average around six weeks. However, severe structural damage to major LNG plants, refineries and fertilizer factories could extend disruptions for months to years in some segments. Broader inflationary and supply‑chain effects may persist for months and, in the worst cases, contribute to a prolonged period of weak growth and high prices.