Ali Larijani, secretary-general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on the third day of the US‑Israel offensive that Iran has prepared for a long war and vowed, “We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost.”
Since February 28, the US and Israel have mounted a coordinated, large military campaign against Iran, targeting leaders, military sites and government facilities. Several high‑ranking Iranian officials have been killed, but the theocratic regime remains intact so far. Iran has replied by launching missiles and drones at Israel, neighboring Persian Gulf states and US bases in the region. The United Arab Emirates reports being struck by hundreds of rockets and drones in recent days.
Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, said by March 4 that Iran had fired more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones; he accused Tehran of indiscriminate attacks on civilians. A weapons expert speaking anonymously said the exact numbers of missiles and drones Iran still possesses are unknown.
At the start of the war, Israel estimated Iran had around 2,500 ballistic missiles. That stockpile has likely fallen due to Iranian launches and US‑Israeli strikes that have damaged and buried storage sites. Satellite images circulating online purport to show attacks on missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad and northern Tabriz, with collapsed tunnel entrances to underground depots. Mobile missile launchers are also being tracked closely, and it is unclear how many missiles were dispersed before the strikes or how many launchers remain operational. Israel has warned that Iran still retains substantial missile capabilities despite ongoing attacks.
Iran is believed to be able to ramp up drone production quickly. Leaked Russian documents claim Tehran can produce about 5,000 drones per month; these drones can be launched from simple scaffolds erected in hours. One of the commonly used drones, the Shahed, reportedly costs Iran several thousand dollars to produce, whereas a US Patriot interceptor can cost up to about $3 million.
A New York Times analysis based on satellite imagery and verified videos found that Iran used short‑range missiles and drones to damage structures linked to communications and radar systems at or near at least seven US military bases in the Middle East. Because US military communications infrastructure is tightly guarded, the exact impact is hard to assess, but the strikes suggest a goal of disrupting US command, control and coordination.
Analysts say Iran is playing for time. Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, told DW that the Iranian leadership is preparing for a prolonged conflict, aiming for resilience — to absorb blows and continue fighting.
The principal cost of the war falls on Iran’s civilian population, vulnerable to strikes in densely populated areas. Iranian sources say a primary school in the southern city of Minab was hit on the first day of the conflict; state media showed mass funerals for 168 children and their teachers who reportedly died in the attack. The United Nations described the incident as “absolutely shocking” and called for an investigation. Israel denied attacking the school, and the US, with two aircraft carrier strike groups in the region, said it would investigate.
The article was originally written in German.