Razed forests, collapsing fisheries and vanishing pollinators rarely register as national security threats. Yet recognition is growing that nature loss poses serious risks to political stability.
“Nature is a foundation of national security,” write authors from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) in a recent assessment that draws a direct line between protecting critical ecosystems and a country’s future stability.
Biodiversity loss threatens the water, food, clean air and critical materials on which societies depend. The report warns that six critical ecosystem regions — including the Amazon — could collapse by mid‑century, with knock‑on effects for the UK and other nations. Collapse of distant ecosystems can disturb systems that “drive displacement of millions, change global weather patterns, increase global food and water scarcity, and drive geopolitical competition for remaining resources,” the assessment says.
One of the most immediate dangers is food insecurity. More than a third of the world’s ocean fish stocks are overfished, and over three‑quarters of global food crops depend on pollinators declining under intensive agriculture. As ecosystems weaken, supply shocks become more likely and more politically destabilizing.
Countries that rely heavily on imports are especially exposed. The UK imports about 40% of its food and lacks sufficient agricultural land for current dietary patterns. In the United States, an estimated 75–90% of seafood is imported. Disruptions abroad therefore translate rapidly into domestic price spikes and shortages. “Protecting and restoring ecosystems improves food system and societal resilience to shocks,” DEFRA notes.
Swapping debt for conservation
Protecting nature is as much a financial challenge as an ecological one. For debt‑burdened countries, short‑term revenue from logging or extraction can be hard to resist. The world spends roughly US$7.3 trillion on activities that harm nature — about 30 times what it spends on protection — according to the UN Environment Programme. Advocates call for a dramatic reversal of that spending imbalance.
Debt‑for‑nature swaps are an increasingly popular tool to unlock capital for ecosystem protection. The model, which dates to the 1980s, exchanges a creditor’s or NGO’s purchase or restructuring of a country’s debt for commitments to fund conservation. The first deal, in 1987, saw Conservation International buy Bolivian debt so Bolivia could invest in protecting a biosphere reserve. More recent examples include a 2021 swap in Belize that eased debt pressures while directing funds into fisheries management and marine conservation.
Protected marine areas can serve as incubators for fish stocks, supporting wider fisheries. With seafood a major protein source for over 3 billion people, maintaining fish populations is crucial to food security.
A new era of private investment
Private investors increasingly view nature‑focused transactions as offering bond‑like returns alongside environmental and social benefits. Legal & General, the UK’s largest asset manager, pledged $1 billion to debt‑for‑nature swaps, calling such deals attractive for risk‑return and for supporting communities and ecosystems fundamental to economic resilience. When large institutions invest, they provide a signal that helps similar transactions move forward with greater certainty, say experts.
Debt swaps are only one option. Initiatives like Brazil’s Tropical Forest Forever Facility aim to redirect finance from wealthier nations into countries that commit to protecting rainforests. Foreign assistance and development finance are becoming more explicitly tied to national security considerations, reflecting recognition that supporting nature abroad can reduce risks at home.
Cascading threats from ecosystem loss
Beyond food, protecting ecosystems helps slow climate change, reduce drivers of migration and strengthen fragile economies. Forests and oceans act as major carbon sinks; preserving them limits warming and the associated increases in droughts, crop failures and extreme weather that fuel instability.
The human toll is large. By 2023, over 90 million forcibly displaced people were living in countries or territories experiencing food crises, according to the International Organization for Migration. The UK assessment outlines cascading risks from ecosystem collapse, including exploitation of scarce resources by organized crime, political polarization and even the potential for military escalation.
Investing in nature, experts argue, is a form of risk management: it reduces the likelihood that environmental shocks will spill over into emergencies requiring costly external intervention.
Edited by: Tamsin Walker and Jennifer Collins