Peter Magyar still holds the formal title of Hungary’s opposition leader, but he speaks and acts like a man preparing to govern. The 45‑year‑old lawyer and former diplomat has led the center‑right Tisza party for two years and now projects quietly assured leadership. With the April 12 vote approaching, he lays out domestic and foreign priorities and stresses outreach to those who may not back him — signaling an attempt to govern inclusively if he wins.
Magyar’s confident tone reflects a wider mood in Hungary: growing dissatisfaction with Viktor Orbán’s decade‑plus rule, rising optimism that change is possible, and a parallel current of deep unease about Orbán’s campaign tactics. Recent polls report many Hungarians fear the incumbent might try to disrupt the election or falsify results, turning what was once seen as a routine defeat for the opposition into a contest tinged with worry.
Scholars and analysts note the moment’s intensity. László Kéri, the political scientist who taught a young Orbán, has compared the atmosphere to the country’s transition elections of 1989–1990, predicting turnout could match those historic highs. Researchers at Political Capital say the contest has shifted “from a safe election to an unsafe election,” upending Orbán’s longused appeal of being “the safe choice.” In recent weeks, a string of scandals appears to have pushed undecided voters toward the opposition.
Most independent polls now point to a clear victory for Magyar and Tisza; some surveys even raise the possibility of a supermajority. Polling caveats apply, but the consistent signal is that a majority want the Orbán era to end and hope for a political, social and economic reset.
The biggest swing came after revelations from Bence Szabó, a former criminal investigator who said a unit normally tasked with fighting online child abuse was repurposed for covert operations targeting Tisza. Szabó, who went public after his complaints were ignored, has become a sympathetic, galvanizing figure for many voters alarmed by the alleged abuse of security services.
Other disclosures have deepened public anger. Reports described the state of Hungary’s military as precarious even as the government prepared an expensive deployment to Chad — a mission critics say was pushed by Gáspár Orbán, the prime minister’s son, who has promoted a religiously framed vision of “saving Africa.” Gáspár’s unconventional path — from aspiring pro soccer player to evangelical conversion in Uganda and military training at Sandhurst — has drawn scrutiny and fed narratives about blurred lines between personal ambition and state policy.
A documentary titled The Price of the Vote accused Fidesz of buying support among drug users, Roma communities and the poor. Investigative reporting revealed that officials knew a Samsung battery plant north of Budapest had exposed workers to hazardous conditions and contaminated local soil and water, yet failed to act and allegedly tried to cover it up. Outrage also followed reports of lavish renovations at the National Bank: former central bank chief György Matolcsy was said to have ordered extravagant personal fixtures as he prepared to travel with his family to Dubai.
Taken together, these stories have strengthened a picture of an elite enriching itself while public services, worker safety and the environment suffer — even as the government frames critics as unpatriotic. That narrative has eroded trust in institutions and made the election about more than routine political turnover.
In the campaign’s closing days, leaked readouts and audio of phone calls involving Orbán, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Russian officials suggested an unusually deferential posture toward Moscow. One reported remark likened Orbán to a small mouse eager to help a powerful lion — an image critics say underlines risky closeness to Vladimir Putin. Orbán and Fidesz defend contacts with Russia as defensive measures to protect Hungary from supposed Ukrainian espionage, military threats and foreign interference. Throughout the campaign, Orbán has framed the vote as a choice between his leadership and alleged outside influence, notably invoking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the EU in warnings about foreign meddling.
The campaign has also seen widespread use of generative AI to create fake videos and fearmongering ads — possibly one of the first European elections where such tactics have been deployed at scale. That technological element has added urgency to concerns about disinformation, electoral integrity and the role of new tools in shaping public sentiment.
As voters prepare to decide, Hungarian public life is dominated by competing forces: scandals that have emboldened calls for accountability, fear about the fairness of the vote and the future shape of the country, and cautious hope among those who see an opportunity for renewal. Whether fear or hope proves more decisive at the ballot box will determine not only the next administration but the direction of Hungarian politics for years to come.
Originally published in German.