On April 12, Hungary holds what many see as the most consequential parliamentary election since the end of the communist era in 1989–90. The central question is whether Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his ruling Fidesz party can be removed from power. For the first time since 2010, the opposition — led by Peter Magyar’s conservative Tisza party — has a genuine chance of winning.
The outcome matters not only for Hungary’s domestic future but also for the European Union and for how much influence Russia can exert within the bloc.
How Orbán transformed Hungary
After winning a two-thirds majority in 2010, Orbán established his “System of National Cooperation” (NER) and replaced elites across the state, judiciary, civil service and administration with loyalists. Power in Hungary has become highly centralized. Checks and balances were weakened, media were largely brought under government-friendly control through allied companies and foundations, university autonomy was eroded, and significant state assets were placed under foundations linked to Fidesz. Experts often describe Hungary as a hybrid regime, sitting between democracy and authoritarianism.
Why many Hungarians want change
Orbán’s economic and tax policies have benefited his upper-middle-class base, but many Hungarians have seen living standards, public infrastructure, healthcare and education decline. Public frustration with corruption and apparent illicit enrichment of officials is widespread. The political atmosphere is highly polarized: Orbán has vilified critics as traitors and portrayed Ukraine negatively in the Russia–Ukraine war, intensifying social divisions.
Why the election matters for Europe
Orbán has openly sought to reshape the EU into a confederation of sovereign states and often clashes with Brussels. Through vetoes and refusals to back key EU foreign-policy steps, he has at times paralyzed collective action. Another Orbán term would likely further weaken EU cohesion; his defeat could strengthen the bloc’s unity.
Why the election matters for Russia
No EU member state has as close ties to Russia as Orbán’s Hungary. While Budapest backed many post‑2014 sanctions, since Russia’s 2022 invasion Orbán has pushed to lift them, sought exemptions and obstructed support for Ukraine. Those actions align with Russian aims to weaken the EU; an Orbán loss would be a setback for Moscow.
Can Orbán be voted out?
Since 2010, Fidesz has reformed electoral rules to favor its prospects, increasing the weight of single-member districts (106 of 199 seats) decided by first-past-the-post. Constituencies favorable to Fidesz are often smaller, meaning fewer votes are needed to win those seats. In 2022, Fidesz took about 53% of the vote but nearly 68% of parliamentary seats. Ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries with Hungarian citizenship can vote by absentee ballot for party lists, which could add one or two seats for Fidesz; Hungarians in many Western European countries can only vote at embassies and consulates. Experts say the system is skewed but most do not expect large-scale vote rigging; isolated postal-vote fraud is a concern. Change is difficult but possible.
Polls and their reliability
Independent polls have for more than a year shown the Tisza party leading Fidesz, sometimes significantly. But nationwide polls don’t fully capture constituency-level dynamics. Fidesz’s core voters — older people and retirees in small towns and villages — are less visible in some surveys, so poll predictions could be off. Nevertheless, many analysts expect Orbán to lose.
What Peter Magyar promises
Peter Magyar says he would realign Hungary closer to the EU and NATO and distance the country from Russia. On migration and Ukraine he would preserve much of Hungary’s current stance, avoiding outright confrontation with Brussels while maintaining parts of Orbán’s approach. Domestically, Magyar pledges to tackle corruption and implement systemic reforms: a fairer electoral system, a two-term limit for the prime minister, and a new constitution. High-ranking Orbán allies could face corruption or high-treason investigations.
Would Orbán accept defeat?
Orbán has not given a definitive answer. He has noted he has both won and lost elections and called Hungary a democracy. If he contests the result, mass protests and possibly violent clashes could follow, given deep public anger. Whether his supporters would mobilize en masse if he loses likely depends on his response.
Can the Orban system be dismantled?
Orbán has guarded his power with many measures that require a two-thirds parliamentary majority to reverse, and he has appointed many loyalists to key posts with long terms. A new government with only a simple majority could face obstruction from the entrenched institutions of the existing system. Even with a two-thirds majority, overhauling the system could take years.
This article was translated from German.