Peter Magyar is still officially Hungary’s opposition leader, but he speaks as if already prime minister, outlining domestic and foreign priorities and saying he wants to reach out to those who won’t vote for him. The 45-year-old lawyer and former diplomat has been the face of the opposition for two years. Leading the center‑right Tisza party, he projects strong self‑confidence and, as the April 12 vote approaches, acts as though he is overseeing a transfer of power.
Magyar’s tone mirrors a mood across much of Hungary: growing dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his rule, rising optimism at the prospect of change, and deep unease about Orbán’s campaign — which many see as presenting a darker, parallel vision of the country. Recent polls show a significant share of voters fear Orbán might try to cancel the election or falsify the results.
Observers see a major voter shift. Political scientist and sociologist László Kéri — who taught a young Orbán — has compared the moment to 1989–1990, predicting turnout could rival Hungary’s first free elections in March 1990. Researchers Attila Juhász and Róbert László of Political Capital say the race has moved “from a safe election to an unsafe election,” echoing Orbán’s longtime slogan, “the safe choice.” In recent weeks Orbán and Fidesz have been shaken by scandals that appear to have driven undecided voters away.
Most independent polls project a clear victory for Magyar and Tisza; one even suggested a two‑thirds majority. Polling caveats remain, but they consistently show a majority of Hungarians want the Orbán era to end and are hoping for a fresh start politically, socially and economically.
The biggest swing in sentiment followed an interview with Bence Szabó, a former criminal investigator whose unit — normally tasked with fighting online child pornography — was reportedly repurposed by the government for a secret intelligence operation targeting Tisza to paralyze the party before the vote. Szabó, forced to go public after being ignored by superiors, has become a figure many Hungarians identify with.
Other revelations have also struck a chord. Reports about the state of Hungary’s army described it as precarious or catastrophic even as the government prepared an expensive mission to Chad — a deployment critics say was arranged after Orbán’s son Gáspár advanced a religiously tinged vision of “saving Africa.” Gáspár Orbán’s trajectory — from professional soccer to evangelical conversion in Uganda and military training at Sandhurst — has drawn intense scrutiny.
A string of additional scandals has surfaced. A documentary, The Price of the Vote, claims Fidesz spent years buying votes from drug users, Roma and the poor. In February it emerged the government knew a Samsung battery plant north of Budapest had exposed workers to dangerous conditions and polluted local soil and water but failed to act, instead trying to cover it up. Citizens were also angered by revelations about lavish renovations at the National Bank; former central bank chief György Matolcsy reportedly installed a private bathroom and demanded a golden toilet brush before his family left for Dubai.
Together these stories have reinforced an image of elites who enrich themselves while society and the environment suffer — all the while accusing critics of being unpatriotic.
In the last days of the campaign, leaked readouts and audio of phone calls involving Orbán, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Kremlin officials were published, suggesting an obsequious posture toward Moscow. One reported comparison by Orbán likened himself to a small mouse eager to help a powerful lion — a reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orbán and Fidesz have framed contacts with Russia as part of a strategy to shield Hungary from alleged Ukrainian espionage, military threats and potential coups. Throughout the campaign Orbán has argued the vote is about “whether I run the next Hungarian government or [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy does,” casting the contest as a fight against Ukrainian and EU meddling.
The campaign has also seen wide use of generative AI to produce fake videos and scare ads — possibly the first European election to deploy such tactics at scale. As Hungary heads to the polls, journalists and analysts ask whether fear or hope will be the more powerful force at the ballot box.
This article was originally published in German.