As Hungary’s April 12 general election nears, polls point to a narrow lead for Peter Magyar, challenger to long-serving incumbent Viktor Orban, though many voters remain undecided and results vary by institute. An IDEA survey showed 30% backing Orban’s Fidesz, 39% for Magyar’s Tisza, and 21% undecided. A separate ECFR poll finds Orban still competitive but shows voters — including many Fidesz supporters — favoring a different relationship with the EU while remaining skeptical about support for Ukraine and Kyiv’s EU ambitions.
Polling highlights on EU policy
– The ECFR representative poll of 1,001 people (March 26–April 1) found a majority want less friction with the EU:
– 43% want a “very different approach” to EU relations
– 25% want “minor adjustments”
– 19% want to “keep the current approach”
– Among Fidesz supporters, 44% wanted to keep the current approach, but 45% wanted either major or minor change
– 91% of Tisza supporters wanted a realigned EU relationship
– 77% of respondents supported Hungary’s EU membership
– 66% supported joining the eurozone and adopting the euro
– Overall distrust in the EU was voiced by 15% of respondents; distrust figures were higher within Orban and Magyar supporter groups
Pawel Zerka, ECFR polling lead, noted two-thirds of Hungarians trust the EU and overwhelmingly support staying in the bloc despite Orban’s criticism.
Findings on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Orban has centered criticism of the EU and opposition to support for Ukraine in his campaign; he recently blocked approval of a major loan for Kyiv at an EU leaders’ summit. The ECFR study found public skepticism of stronger ties with Ukraine:
– 77% of Fidesz supporters wanted to keep the current approach to Ukraine; only 11% of Tisza supporters felt this way
– 26% of all respondents endorsed financial support for Ukraine; 47% of Tisza supporters did so
– 56% opposed Ukraine joining the EU; 50% of Tisza supporters supported accession, while 77% of Fidesz supporters strongly opposed it
– 36% supported transit of military aid through Hungary; 77% of Fidesz supporters and 30% of Tisza supporters opposed transit
– 66% of Tisza supporters wanted to stop buying Russian oil (Hungary is exempt from EU oil sanctions), while 77% of Fidesz supporters opposed ending oil purchases from Russia
– 62% of Fidesz supporters saw Ukraine as “an adversary — with which we are in conflict”; 19% of Fidesz supporters called Russia an “ally” and 57% described Russia as a “necessary partner”
Piotr Buras of ECFR warned that a Magyar win would not necessarily produce a full U-turn on foreign policy, given divisions and skepticism across voter blocs about aid to Kyiv and Ukraine’s EU bid.
Other political divides
– Approval of the current US administration split along party lines amid US lobbying for Orban: three in four Fidesz supporters called Donald Trump a good leader, while four in five Tisza supporters called him a bad one.
Voter priorities and undecided voters
The ECFR poll suggests foreign policy may not be decisive for many voters:
– Only 6% of respondents named “relations with the EU” as the single most important issue (10% of Tisza supporters, 2% of Fidesz supporters)
– Tisza supporters’ top concerns: corruption and governance (31%), public services (18%), cost of living/inflation (17%)
– Fidesz supporters’ top concerns: energy security (22%), cost of living/inflation (20%)
– Both the ECFR and the Hungarian IDEA survey found roughly one in five voters still undecided; about 60% of undecided voters said they would definitely turn out to vote on Sunday.
Edited by: Alex Berry