With Hungary’s April 12 general election approaching, opinion polls show a narrow lead for challenger Peter Magyar over long-serving prime minister Viktor Orbán, though many voters remain undecided and results differ between institutes. An IDEA poll put support at 30% for Orbán’s Fidesz and 39% for Magyar’s Tisza, with 21% undecided.
A study published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) suggests Orbán is not necessarily doomed to lose his bid for a sixth term, but even some Fidesz backers disagree with him on aspects of foreign policy. The ECFR survey of 1,001 people, conducted March 26–April 1, found a majority of Hungarians want less friction in relations with the EU, with strong support for maintaining EU membership and for adopting the euro.
Key findings on EU policy:
– 43% called for a “very different approach” to EU relations.
– 25% wanted “minor adjustments.”
– 19% wanted to “keep the current approach” nationally; that proportion rose to 44% among Fidesz supporters, though 45% of Fidesz backers wanted either major or minor change and the rest were undecided.
– 91% of Magyar’s Tisza supporters wanted a realigned relationship with the EU.
– 77% of respondents supported Hungary’s EU membership.
– 66% backed joining the eurozone and adopting the single currency.
– Only 15% of respondents expressed distrust of the EU overall; distrust was higher among Orbán supporters (47%) and lower among Magyar supporters (32%).
Pawel Zerka, senior policy fellow and polling lead at ECFR, said the survey shows two-thirds of Hungarians trust the EU and want to remain in the bloc despite Orbán’s prolonged criticism.
The poll also showed stark splits over the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Orbán has made criticism of EU policy and opposition to support for Ukraine central to his campaign; at a recent EU summit he blocked approval of a major loan for Kyiv.
Key findings on Ukraine and Russia:
– 77% of Fidesz supporters wanted to keep the government’s current approach to Ukraine; only 11% of Tisza supporters agreed.
– Only 26% of respondents supported financial aid to Ukraine, though 47% of Tisza supporters did.
– 56% opposed Ukraine joining the EU; 50% of Tisza supporters backed membership, while 77% of Fidesz supporters “strongly opposed” it.
– 36% supported allowing military aid to transit through Hungary; 77% of Fidesz supporters opposed such transit, and 30% of Tisza supporters opposed it.
– 66% of Tisza supporters wanted to stop buying Russian oil (Hungary is exempt from EU oil sanctions), while 77% of Fidesz supporters opposed ending purchases.
– 62% of Fidesz supporters described Ukraine as “an adversary — with which we are in conflict”; 19% of Fidesz backers saw Russia as an “ally” and 57% as a “necessary partner.”
Piotr Buras, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, warned that a Magyar victory would not amount to a complete reversal in foreign policy. He noted division and skepticism across both voter blocs about future aid packages for Kyiv and approval of Ukraine’s EU bid, suggesting Hungary would not automatically align with all EU foreign policy positions regardless of the election outcome.
The ECFR survey also reported sharp partisan divides on US politics: about three in four Fidesz supporters rated Donald Trump a good US leader, while four in five Tisza supporters rated him poorly.
On domestic priorities, foreign policy appeared less decisive for many voters. Only 6% of respondents—10% of Tisza supporters and 2% of Fidesz supporters—named relations with the EU as the single most important issue facing Hungary. Tisza voters prioritized corruption and governance (31%), public services (18%), and the cost of living/inflation (17%). Fidesz supporters listed energy security (22%) and cost of living/inflation (20%) as top concerns.
Both the ECFR and Hungary’s IDEA polls found roughly one in five voters remained undecided ahead of the vote; about 60% of those undecided said they would definitely turn out on election day.
Edited by: Alex Berry