What was apparently meant as a joke provoked outrage in Iceland. In January, Billy Long, US President Donald Trump’s nominee for ambassador to Iceland, told members of Congress that Iceland should become the 52nd US state and that he would be governor. The comment sparked immediate anger: the foreign ministry sought clarification from the US embassy, social media filled with criticism, and thousands of Icelanders — in a country of about 400,000 — signed a petition calling for a different nominee. Long later said there was “nothing serious” about the remark and apologized if anyone was offended.
Tensions have been amplified by broader disputes between Trump and NATO partners over the Arctic, notably the episode around Greenland, and Icelanders worry their island could become a pawn in a great-power contest. Iceland lies closer to Greenland than to much of continental Europe, and those geographic realities feed concerns about security and sovereignty.
As a result, Iceland is seriously weighing joining the European Union. The current EU-friendly, center-left government had planned a referendum on accession for 2027 but is now reportedly considering moving the vote forward to August. Recent polls indicate substantial support for joining: about 45% in favor and 35% opposed. A public-broadcaster RUV survey early last year found three-quarters of respondents viewed the US as a threat.
Iceland is already integrated with Europe through membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the European Economic Area (EEA). It benefits from the single market and participates in the Schengen Area, but it is not an EU member. One main obstacle to full membership has long been the EU’s common fisheries policy. Fishing is Iceland’s most important economic sector; joining the EU would oblige Iceland to allow access to its waters for fleets from other member states and to follow EU rules on quotas, raising fears of losing control over stocks and risking overfishing.
On defense, Iceland is a founding NATO member but has no standing army, having relied on US protection for decades. That security reliance is being questioned amid recent disputes. Economic frictions have also increased: Trump imposed 15% tariffs on certain Icelandic goods, a significant blow for a nation heavily dependent on fish exports. The United States remains Iceland’s second-most important trading partner after the EU, so these measures have accentuated interest in closer ties with Europe despite domestic concerns in the fishing sector.
This is not the first time Iceland has moved toward the EU. After the 2008 financial crisis, when Iceland’s three largest banks collapsed, unemployment surged from near zero to about 10%, the krona depreciated sharply, and the country took an IMF loan of over $2 billion, Iceland applied for EU membership seeking stability and support. Formal negotiations started, but a Euroskeptic center-right government froze talks in 2013 and withdrew the application in 2015 as the economy recovered.
In the current geopolitical climate, Brussels appears receptive. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said after meeting Iceland’s foreign minister that Iceland is “a trusted partner and a close friend of the EU” and that they agreed to stay in close contact amid a changing geopolitical environment. Because Iceland is already deeply integrated into EU structures via the EEA and EFTA, Brussels views it as a relatively straightforward negotiating partner. Observers note that Iceland’s accession would also send a clear geopolitical signal to Washington in the context of transatlantic tensions.
This article was originally written in German.