May 13, 2026 — Key developments in the Middle East conflict and its global fallout.
IEA: strategic oil stocks being emptied at record speed
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that strategic oil reserves are being drawn down “at a record pace” in response to widespread supply disruptions caused by the ongoing US‑Israeli campaign against Iran. The IEA has urged caution, saying rapidly shrinking buffers amid continued disruption raise the risk of future price spikes as demand rises for the northern-hemisphere summer. In March the IEA pledged emergency releases to support markets, and member countries have made major drawdowns since the initial attacks.
Iran says control of the Strait of Hormuz boosts leverage and revenue
Tehran says it is using its control of the Strait of Hormuz — a route that normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments — as an economic and geopolitical lever. Iran’s military spokespeople and parliamentary security officials said the Revolutionary Guards control the western side of the strait while the navy oversees the east, and that a plan to manage the waterway has been finalised. Iranian officials claim tolls imposed on transiting vessels have already begun producing revenue and say the strategic position could substantially increase oil income.
Gaza ceasefire envoy visits Jerusalem amid stalled implementation
Nickolay Mladenov, the UN official appointed to oversee the Gaza ceasefire process, travelled to Jerusalem seeking progress on a US‑brokered agreement struck seven months earlier. The truce envisaged an Israeli pullback, Hamas disarmament, and post‑war reconstruction, but aid agencies and mediators say progress has stalled: Israel has been criticised for restricting aid flows, Hamas remains armed and continues to control much of the territory, and fears persist of renewed large‑scale fighting. The Gaza Health Ministry, run by Hamas, reports heavy civilian casualties since the conflict began.
Germany says no imminent shortages of fuel or kerosene
Germany’s government reported it is not currently facing shortages of oil, gas or jet fuel despite higher global prices linked to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the cabinet reviewed an energy ministry report concluding that reserves remain sufficient, and that alternative supplies could make up for reduced flows from certain exporters.
UAE tanker leaking bunker fuel after drone strike off Oman
An Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) subsidiary confirmed a small leak of bunker fuel from the UAE‑owned tanker M.V. Barakah after it was struck by drones near Oman’s Musandam Peninsula on May 4. Satellite imagery showed a white trail consistent with oil. The vessel, reportedly not carrying cargo and with no injuries to crew, remains at anchor while response teams and authorities coordinate containment. Environmental concerns have been raised about such incidents amid the wider conflict.
Calls for China to press for an end to the war
German foreign-policy figure Armin Laschet said an end to the fighting is in both US and Chinese interests, arguing that disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and higher energy costs have already exacted large economic costs worldwide. He urged China, a major importer of Gulf energy, to use its influence to push for reopening the strait and a diplomatic resolution.
Deadly strikes in southern Lebanon
Israeli forces said they struck infrastructure tied to Hezbollah across southern Lebanon. Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported eight people killed in attacks on a highway south of Beirut, including two children. The strikes come amid continued exchanges since Hezbollah entered the wider regional confrontation earlier in the year; Lebanese authorities say thousands of civilians have died in Lebanon since fighting escalated.
Iran executes man convicted of spying for Israel
Iran’s judiciary announced the execution by hanging of Ehsan Afreshteh, whom officials accused of being trained by Mossad and passing sensitive information to Israel. Rights groups say Iran has carried out an increased number of executions during the current conflict, including in cases involving alleged espionage.
BRICS foreign ministers meet in Delhi as war overshadows agenda
Foreign ministers from the BRICS grouping convened in Delhi for a two‑day meeting expected to be dominated by the Iran war. The expanded bloc now includes countries with opposing positions, and members warned consensus would be difficult given direct involvement by some states. Iran’s foreign minister was due to attend; China’s top diplomat reportedly remained in Beijing and sent a deputy. Organizers and diplomats said the meeting offered an opportunity for emerging‑market and developing countries to discuss the crisis’s economic and political fallout.
Outlook
The immediate outlook depends on whether disruptions to shipping and production ease. The IEA cautioned that with inventories already under pressure, further shocks could trigger significant price volatility ahead of peak summer demand. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts and multilateral forums are testing the ability of regional and global actors to de‑escalate the crisis and stabilise markets and humanitarian conditions.