Meera Kurian, 46, had worked in Dubai long enough to stop counting the years. Earlier this month, the hotel where she worked let her go after occupancy plunged following the outbreak of the Iran war.
She is not angry, and that, more than anything, captures the mood of many returning Indian workers.
“Everyone is in the same situation,” Kurian told DW from Kochi in southern India. “You cannot be angry at a war.”
Across the Gulf, the conflict has triggered airspace closures, shipping disruptions and stalled projects, denting confidence that sustains the regional economy. Trade that used to flow through the Strait of Hormuz is being slowed and rerouted. Travel has dried up, hotels are emptying and airlines are cutting flights. Even supermarket shelves are thinning.
“When people stop coming, it spreads … retail, logistics, everything. Dubai runs on visitors. Take that away and the whole machine slows down,” Kurian said.
Indians evacuated from the Gulf
As of earlier this year, about 9 million Indian nationals held jobs in Gulf states, making them the region’s largest expatriate community. They work across construction, hospitality, logistics, retail and services and send more than $50 billion a year in remittances to India.
Around 984,000 Indian nationals flew home between the outbreak of the Iran war in late February and mid-April, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs — a figure that also includes students and other vulnerable groups. “Our efforts are focused on keeping people safe, with dedicated control rooms issuing updated advisories containing information related to local government guidelines, flight status and travel situations,” senior ministry official Aseem Mahajan told reporters.
Still, most Indian workers so far have chosen to stay, unwilling to abandon jobs and lives they built over years. The choice is difficult: returning means giving up the gains that prompted migration; staying means living as the local economy quietly contracts. If the war drags on, many could face layoffs or unpaid leave, while those who leave must bear high travel and relocation costs amid uncertain job prospects.
Parts of India feeling the impact
Kurian said sending cargo from Dubai to Kochi now costs about 30% more. Even back home, it does not yet feel like a normal return. “Nobody is saying it out loud, but everyone is waiting,” she said.
The disruption follows her to Kerala, India’s largest remittance recipient. About 2.2 million Keralites work abroad, nearly 90% in the Gulf. “Drop in remittances has also begun to impact domestic consumption and companies in places like Kerala who report that their sales have seen a dip, especially in areas dominated by families of Gulf migrants,” former diplomat Venu Rajamony told DW. “All these trends will accelerate the longer the war extends. The trust others had in the Gulf countries as a safe haven has been seriously eroded.”
“I cannot start all over again”
Ramesh Kumar Reddy, 38, had 11 years’ experience as an instrumentation technician at a petrochemical plant near Muscat, Oman, before being placed on unpaid leave in late March with two weeks’ notice. Back in Visakhapatnam, his Gulf certifications in pressure systems and safety compliance carry little weight. The nearest refinery is not hiring; he has applied to a private security firm.
“In Oman, I was a specialist till the war disrupted everything,” Reddy said. “Here, nobody knows what to do with me. I cannot start all over again.”
What starts as layoffs for individual workers can become a broader problem. People returning are not only blue-collar laborers but also technicians, supervisors and small business owners. Many exits have been sudden and harsh.
Iran war raises risk of ‘labor shock’ in India
If the conflict continues, it could hit consumption, housing and household debt in India, with effects spilling beyond the directly affected families. “A prolonged Iran-linked conflict in West Asia will steadily strain Gulf economies and, in turn, India’s diaspora. While there is no sudden exodus yet, a drawn-out war could trigger job losses and push many Indians, especially families, to return,” former ambassador to Oman Anil Wadhwa said. “Even over the longer term, the Gulf’s role as India’s employment ‘safety valve’ may weaken as conflict and post-war rebuilding reshape opportunities in the region.”
Lekha Chakraborty, an economist at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, warned of a “labor shock.” “Within months, a war-driven labor shock could spill into wider regional stress, with rising debt, underemployment and pressure on state finances,” she told DW. “At that point, the fallout from the Iran conflict is no longer confined to the Gulf. It begins to weigh on the Indian economy itself.”
For much of India, the economic shock is still on the horizon. For Kurian, and others like her, it is already at the door. “We had a life there. Now we wait to see what is left of it,” she said.
Edited by: Darko Janjevic