April 2, 2026 — Oil prices climbed and global stock markets slipped after US President Donald Trump’s prime-time speech on the expanding war with Iran, as concerns mounted over disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of the conflict widening.
Markets and shipping
Brent crude jumped about 5% to $106.22 a barrel and the US benchmark rose roughly 4.2% to $104.36 after Iran’s near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz interrupted flows through a chokepoint that ordinarily carries about one-fifth of the world’s crude. Asian equities fell, with Tokyo’s Nikkei down 1.4%, South Korea’s Kospi off 3.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.8%. Futures in the US and Europe also retreated.
The move to effectively close Hormuz — prompted by Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and an intensified US‑Israeli campaign against Iranian targets — has pushed oil above $100 a barrel and forced some countries to explore alternate routes and security measures. Traders and analysts warned the disruption could trigger a prolonged energy shock if shipping remains constrained.
Trump’s address
In the televised address, Mr. Trump said US operations had ‘‘dramatically curtailed’’ Iran’s missile and drone capacities, described the Iranian navy and air force as severely degraded and claimed Iranian leaders were ‘‘now dead.’’ He warned of intensified strikes over the coming two to three weeks and vowed to ‘‘hit them extremely hard,’’ saying he would return the country to a much weaker state. He also told oil-importing countries to secure their own supplies, insisting the US would not provide their oil in future.
Trump said core US objectives were approaching completion but gave no firm end date. His comments did little to reassure markets or many foreign leaders.
Global diplomatic responses
The United Kingdom convened a virtual summit of about 35 countries, led by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, to discuss ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore freedom of navigation. Germany participated in the UK-led talks alongside partners including France, Italy, Canada and the UAE; the United States was not expected to attend.
French President Emmanuel Macron, visiting South Korea, criticized what he called contradictions in the US approach and called proposals to reopen Hormuz by force unrealistic and likely to be protracted and dangerous given Iran’s missile and Revolutionary Guard capabilities.
Moscow signaled a willingness to help mediate. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said President Vladimir Putin remained in contact with regional leaders and that Russia could assist efforts to transition the military situation toward a peaceful outcome if required.
China blamed what it called an ‘‘illegal military operation’’ for the Hormuz blockade, urged an immediate end to hostilities and pushed for diplomacy to prevent further escalation and limit global economic fallout.
Iran and regional fighting
Iran’s military vowed continued, ‘‘crushing’’ attacks on the US and Israel after the speech, and state media quoted the Khatam al‑Anbiya operational command saying the war would persist until the US faced ‘‘humiliation’’ and ‘‘surrender.’’ Iran launched missiles toward Israel, and the UAE reported its air defenses had responded to missile and drone threats.
The wider fighting has damaged infrastructure across the region: drone and missile strikes have struck oil facilities and depots in Iraq, while Israeli strikes targeted sites in Lebanon, with Lebanese authorities and Israeli statements saying Hezbollah commanders were among those killed. Large funerals in Tehran, including for IRGC commander Alireza Tangsiri, and elevated domestic mobilization in several countries have highlighted the conflict’s intensity.
Iraq’s export shift and economic strain
Iraq, which relies on oil for about 90% of state revenue, has started routing crude through Syria to reach Mediterranean outlets. State marketer SOMO said it had contracted to export 50,000 barrels per day of Basra medium crude via Syria and planned to increase volumes where pipeline capacity and logistics allow. Southern Iraqi output has plunged since the war began — from roughly 3.1 million barrels per day to about 900,000 bpd in Basra province — and Iraqi officials warned that state cash reserves could be exhausted by mid‑May without a return to normal sales.
Iraq’s ability to rely on transit assurances is complicated by its lack of a national tanker fleet, meaning it must use foreign‑flagged vessels and charterers willing to accept higher risks.
Fact checks and contested claims
Fact‑checking teams, including DW, and independent analysts scrutinized several of Mr. Trump’s assertions, such as the claim the US is ‘‘totally independent’’ of Middle Eastern oil and that earlier Iranian leaders were all dead. Observers said some claims appeared overstated or lacked verifiable evidence amid active combat and competing propaganda.
Outlook
With strikes, shipping disruptions and regional reprisals continuing, energy markets and investors are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk. Diplomatic efforts — from the UK‑led talks on Hormuz to offers of Russian mediation and calls for de‑escalation from China and others — face the immediate task of securing shipping lanes while trying to prevent a broader regional conflagration.