The statements after an emergency meeting of Arab and Islamic foreign ministers in Riyadh focused on one subject: Iran.
The conflict, which escalated sharply after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spread. Iran targeted a major energy hub in Qatar following an Israeli strike on the South Pars gas field. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, said after the meeting that Riyadh still prefers a diplomatic solution and will not allow its territory to be used to launch attacks on Iran. But he warned Saudi Arabia would use every lever to stop Iran from striking neighboring countries that are not party to the conflict.
The Gulf states are increasingly at risk of being pulled into a war they sought to avoid.
Not our fight, say Gulf states
Although Iran is the aggressor, there is growing disillusionment with the US across the Gulf. The assumption that large American military bases guarantee protection has been challenged: many Iranian missiles and drones struck Gulf targets despite US and Gulf defenses. Iran has defended attacks on Gulf states by citing the presence of US bases, even as it has hit oil infrastructure and civilian sites such as airports and hotels.
“This is Netanyahu’s war,” Saudi Arabia’s former intelligence chief, Prince Turki al-Faisal, said in March, blaming Israeli leadership and its US backers. Regional sources told the Associated Press that Gulf warnings were disregarded when the US and Israel proceeded.
Gulf leaders have learned that hosting US bases does not necessarily deter attacks and can make host countries targets. The US embassy in Riyadh was evacuated after being attacked by Iranian drones in March.
End of “cautious neutrality”
Commentary in the Qatari-funded Al Araby Al Jadeed argued the presence of US bases has eroded Gulf agency, preventing independent decision-making and self-defense. Think tanks describe the pre-war stance as “cautious neutrality,” intended to keep Gulf states out of fighting and protect development goals. That posture has frayed as Iran began striking Gulf countries, revealing dependence on outside powers for security.
Bruno Schmidt-Feuerheerd, a political scientist, said initial perceptions blamed Israel and, to an extent, the US for escalation. As attacks reached Gulf states, frustration shifted toward external actors. Pauline Raabe of Middle East Minds noted criticism of the US is growing more public; Gulf states are united in shock though their reactions vary. Saudi Arabia has openly criticized former US and Israeli leaders, while Qatar has been more measured. Oman’s foreign minister called in The Economist for allies to help extricate the US from an “unlawful war,” arguing Washington has lost control of its foreign policy.
The UAE has borne heavy attacks. Observers suggest Iran may seek to pressure the Gulf’s successful economic models—such as Dubai—by undermining security and stability that underpin tourism, finance, and investment.
Long-term reassessment of Gulf-US ties
In the longer term, the war may prompt Gulf states to reassess relations with Washington. Schmidt-Feuerheerd expects reviews of whether US bases are security benefits or liabilities. Yet deep military integration means any change would take years. Raabe argues the decades-old bargain—cheap oil for American security guarantees—looks increasingly outdated, though an abrupt break is unlikely because ties extend beyond military cooperation.
Even before the war, the Gulf had been hedging: Saudi Arabia cultivated ties with Pakistan and Turkey, Qatar reached out to European partners, and several states strengthened relations with China and others. Those shifts were already underway but have become more significant amid the current crisis.
Diversification and its limits
Gulf states are exploring diversification of security partnerships, but Schmidt-Feuerheerd cautions none of the new partners represent a full military alternative to the US. The idea of “hedging” in security is murkier than in economics, and it’s doubtful security can be diversified as easily as investments. Political differences among Gulf states further complicate unified action; relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE had been moving toward rivalry before the conflict forced greater coordination.
What unites Gulf governments is the priority of regional stability. Their economic plans—Saudi Vision 2030, Dubai’s global ambitions, Doha’s development—depend on peace and a stable environment. That makes the ability to defend themselves a central concern going forward.
This story was originally published in German.