Choked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is not only disrupting oil tankers — it is striking a major blow at the global fertilizer supply. Nearly half of the world’s traded urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, and about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) move through the Gulf. The Haber‑Bosch process that makes ammonia — the basis for nitrogen fertilizers — combines atmospheric nitrogen with hydrogen derived from natural gas, so interruptions to LNG supplies ripple into fertilizer production. Whether a recently reached temporary ceasefire will meaningfully ease the blockage remains uncertain.
Fertilizer and LNG plants from Qatar to Bangladesh have already begun curbing operations or shutting down. The scale of lost supply is unusual and, if prolonged, threatens to push food prices higher, especially harming the poorest countries. Policymakers and farmers face a set of difficult, often imperfect, options.
Governments try to plug holes
The quickest government responses are to use policy levers to control supply or demand. Some countries can tap reserves: India holds large stockpiles of rice and wheat, and China — the world’s largest fertilizer producer — maintains massive fertilizer stocks. Richer governments can cushion farmers by absorbing higher fertilizer costs; after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered an earlier fertilizer shock, India raised its fertilizer subsidy dramatically.
Countries can also restrict exports to conserve domestic supply, as China has done periodically. These measures help domestic consumers but are essentially zero‑sum: they protect local farmers while worsening shortages and prices elsewhere. Moreover, wealthier nations are more able to afford subsidies and stockpiles; poorer neighbors often cannot.
Shift to other crops
Farmers may respond by planting crops that need less synthetic nitrogen. Legumes such as soybeans fix atmospheric nitrogen naturally and require much less fertilizer than corn or other heavy feeders. US planting forecasts showed a modest shift toward soybeans and slightly less corn even before the current crisis intensified.
But switching crops is not universally feasible. In South and Southeast Asia, for example, monsoon conditions and dietary dependence on rice limit the scope for pivoting away from fertilizer‑intensive staples.
Distribute fertilizer more efficiently
Where crop choices cannot change, farmers can alter how they apply fertilizer. Estimates suggest only about half of applied nitrogen is taken up by crops; the rest leaches into groundwater or escapes as nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. Better targeting can raise nutrient use efficiency.
Precision agriculture — using drones, sensors, cameras and AI — can monitor crop needs and apply fertilizer only where and when required. However, such technologies are costly and often out of reach for smallholders in poorer countries. Policy and price signals matter: when fertilizer is heavily subsidized, farmers have little incentive to trim excessive application. Past price spikes, such as in Bangladesh in 2022, showed that farmers can reduce use without large yield losses when motivated.
Produce fertilizer differently
Longer‑term fixes include producing nitrogen differently or reducing dependence on synthetic sources. Microbial seed treatments, developed by companies such as Pivot Bio, use bacteria that help plants access atmospheric nitrogen and have been adopted on millions of acres in the US. Such biological solutions could reduce reliance on LNG in the fertilizer supply chain.
But novel technologies and new production methods are medium‑ to long‑term responses; they cannot quickly replace lost supplies in a short crisis. Stabilizing physical fertilizer availability — reopening shipping routes and restoring LNG flows — is the immediate priority.
The current disruption is “a step removed from the worst‑case scenario,” according to analysts tracking global fertilizer markets. With massive amounts of supply offline, global food systems face real risk. In the near term, a mix of government action, smarter fertilizer use by farmers, and accelerated adoption of alternative technologies will shape how well countries weather higher prices and tighter availability.
Edited by: Sarah Steffen