The Iran war is severely disrupting global aviation, triggering jet fuel shortages and rising prices that are forcing route cuts and higher fares. On April 21, Lufthansa said it would cancel 20,000 flights between May and October to conserve fuel, removing the equivalent of roughly 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel — a commodity whose price has doubled since the conflict began. Dutch carrier KLM canceled 160 flights for the coming month, while other airlines in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region are raising prices, adding fuel surcharges or considering further cancellations ahead of the summer travel season.
Energy officials and industry bodies warn supplies could tighten quickly. International Energy Agency director Fatih Birol said Europe may have as little as six weeks of jet fuel left, and EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned the situation was shifting from high prices toward an actual supply crisis. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global oil and gas flows; much of the kerosene used to make jet fuel for Europe transits that route.
There is disagreement on how close Europe is to running out. The Dutch government said the EU has at least five months’ supply of kerosene for aviation and other uses. The EU produces an estimated 60–70% of its jet fuel domestically and imports 30–40%, about half of which transits the Strait of Hormuz. The Netherlands, home to major refineries that import crude and produce jet fuel, is central to this supply chain.
Transport economists and industry analysts differ on the likely trajectory. Rico Luman of ING says the six-week warning is plausible and that EU contingency plans for fuel sharing between hubs and member states may be needed. John Grant of aviation data firm OAG argues the situation is less dire for now, noting many canceled flights are on routes with frequent alternatives. Still, airlines and governments are discussing emergency measures. EU transport ministers met to coordinate guidance, and the European Commission planned a package of energy and transport measures on April 22, including collective management of jet fuel stocks and possible redistribution of existing supplies. Officials have also discussed easing purchases from the US to bolster supplies.
Longer-term alternatives are limited. The aviation industry remains heavily dependent on conventional kerosene. The International Air Transport Association has warned that Europe’s jet fuel resilience has weakened as import dependence has risen. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) — derived from biomass, waste or other feedstocks — are promoted as a decarbonization path, but current production is small and costs are high. Under the EU’s ReFuelEU regulation, SAF mandates rise gradually: the rate from January 2026 is 2%, targeting 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. Industry experts say scaling SAF quickly enough to replace conventional jet fuel in a short-term crisis is unrealistic.
Higher prices are likely to persist even if supplies don’t dry up completely, translating into higher ticket prices for passengers. Many airlines use hedging to lock in fuel costs, but some reduced hedging in recent years, increasing exposure to spot-price spikes. Analysts expect more route suspensions, fuel levies, and fares rises if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. In Asia, where jet fuel prices are already elevated, carriers such as Cathay Pacific, Air New Zealand and AirAsia X have trimmed services to save fuel; traders there tend to sell to the highest bidder as supply tightens.
Industry voices say the crisis highlights aviation’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. Reducing fuel consumption through fewer flights appears the most realistic short-term response if the disruption continues. “It just shows how fragile this industry really is,” says Yi Gao of Purdue University, noting the sector depends on assumptions of stable fuel availability, airspace access and affordable energy.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru