The Iran conflict has sent shockwaves through global aviation, with Africa’s rapidly expanding market among those hit hardest. A sharp jump in jet fuel prices — in some places doubling — and supply disruptions are straining airlines, travelers and tourism businesses across the continent.
Jet fuel, the kerosene‑based product used by aircraft, has surged amid broader concerns over energy security. Brent crude traded near $98 a barrel in early trading, roughly 30% higher than before the conflict began, Reuters reported. Analysts point to fears the fragile ceasefire could collapse, compounded by incidents such as the US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship and largely halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Dominick Andoh, managing partner at AviationGhana, said the spike has affected how much African carriers can buy and operate with, and those costs have been passed to customers through higher ticket prices and increased fuel surcharges.
Airspace restrictions around Gulf states have forced many airlines to reroute or cancel flights, increasing flight times, fuel burn and operational costs. The combination of higher fuel bills and inefficient routings has intensified financial pressure on carriers.
High-profile warnings and reported losses underscore the scale of the disruption. Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote cautioned that most African airlines might not survive sustained fuel spikes. Ethiopian Airlines, among the worst affected, reportedly faced weekly losses of about $137 million and cancelled more than 100 flights each week. Airline officials said destinations that once had multiple daily services have been reduced, contributing to the substantial weekly deficit.
A brief ceasefire raised hopes of relief, but those expectations were dented when the agreement quickly unraveled.
Some carriers are adapting to the new environment. Kenya Airways said it has diverted more European passengers through its Nairobi hub rather than routing them via Gulf transit points, a move CEO George Kamal described as making opportunistic use of current disruptions. Other airlines are exploring alternative routings and operational changes to preserve connectivity and limit costs.
Industry advisors recommend hedging strategies and building fuel reserves where possible. Andoh suggested stockpiling available aviation fuel and using financial hedges to manage price volatility. However, Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, warned recovery in refined jet fuel supplies will take time even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. Damage to refining capacity in the Middle East means it could be months before jet fuel availability returns to pre‑crisis levels.
The fallout extends into tourism, which depends on predictable air services. In Cape Town, tour operator Emraan Roode said cancellations and postponements by international clients have already dented incomes, estimating recent losses between 350,000 and 500,000 rand (about $21,000–$30,000). He said Cape Town’s reputation as a top travel destination has not shielded it from the conflict’s economic ripple effects.
Outlook: industry figures remain cautiously optimistic, noting aviation and tourism rebounded after COVID‑19 and could recover again. Short‑ and medium‑term prospects, however, hinge on how fuel supply dynamics evolve, the duration of the conflict, and whether airlines can secure hedges, alternative routings and sufficient fuel stocks to withstand continued volatility.