Kenyan President William Ruto, who had urged restraint and dialogue in the weeks before the US-Israel war with Iran, has condemned recent strikes across the Gulf. “Kenya strongly condemns the strikes on the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain in the evolving conflict in the Middle East,” Ruto said, warning that regionalization of the conflict “poses a grave threat to international peace and security” and calling for “urgent multi-stakeholder engagement towards de-escalation.”
Nairobi has long promoted multilateral diplomacy and peaceful dispute resolution, and the government has sought to balance that stance with the need to preserve ties to key economic and strategic partners in the region, where thousands of Kenyans work and significant trade links exist. Opposition figures have responded with both caution and criticism, asking whether the government is sufficiently prepared for economic fallout and seeking clearer contingency plans for Kenyans abroad.
On the ground in Nairobi, businesses and traders report immediate effects. Vincent Kipngeno, a logistics businessman who exports horticultural products to Gulf markets, said fuel price rises are already pushing up costs for transport, refrigeration and air freight. “When oil prices spike because of war in the Middle East, the expenses hit us right away,” he said, warning that possible disruptions to shipping routes or airspace would add delays and insurance costs, forcing contract and pricing changes that ultimately raise consumer prices.
In Eastleigh market, clothes trader Aisha Juma said traders feel the impact quickly because Kenya relies heavily on fuel and on goods transiting Gulf trade routes. Rising transport costs from port to Nairobi lead suppliers to raise prices, she said, increasing the cost of basic goods and heightening anxiety among businesses dependent on Gulf routes.
More than 400,000 Kenyans live and work in Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, employed in domestic work, construction, hospitality and aviation. The region is also a key source of remittances. Reports of airspace closures, missile exchanges or security alerts spread rapidly through social media and messaging groups, stoking concern about safety and job security if companies scale back operations or travel is disrupted. Peter Otieno, a Kenyan construction worker in Riyadh, said workers worry that slowed projects or suspended flights would threaten contracts and the incomes their families depend on.
Kenya is vulnerable to energy shocks. The country imports most of its petroleum products, and global oil prices are sensitive to instability in the Middle East. Even without direct imports from conflict zones, global price spikes quickly raise landed costs. Recent years have seen fuel volatility tied to global shocks and supply chain disruptions; a sustained escalation could push international crude prices higher and affect the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s monthly reviews. Higher fuel costs would ripple through transport, food prices, manufacturing and electricity generation.
The Gulf is also an important market for Kenyan exports such as tea, horticultural produce and meat, and serves as a major transit hub for global shipping. Disruptions to key lanes like the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz could increase freight costs or delay deliveries, affecting exporters and contract timelines. XN Iraki, an economist at the University of Nairobi, noted Iran is a sizable market for Kenyan tea: industry data reported that Iran imported about 13 million kilograms of Kenyan tea in 2024, valued at roughly 4.26 billion Kenyan shillings (around $33 million). “We also export a lot of fresh flowers, vegetables and meat to the Middle East, and that is also affected,” Iraki said.
Financial analyst Wycliff Bichanga warned that shipping disruptions could raise Kenya’s import bill because fuel forms a large share of import costs while export revenues could fall if trading partners are affected. Higher prices for imports like medicine, machinery and fertilizer combined with reduced export earnings could add pressure to the economy.
As tensions rise, Nairobi emphasizes diplomacy and de-escalation while trying to shield trade ties and protect the welfare of Kenyans at home and abroad. Edited by: Keith Walker
