As fallout from the US-backed Israeli strikes on Iran unfolds, Lebanon’s situation is especially precarious.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has repeatedly said Lebanon will not get involved in foreign disputes and this week urged Hezbollah not to “drag Lebanon” into “another adventure.” In January, Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem warned any US attack on Iran would be treated as an attack on Hezbollah; on Wednesday another Hezbollah official told AFP the group would only regard an attack on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a “red line.”
Israel — the US’s main regional ally — has warned Beirut it would strike hard and target civilian infrastructure if Hezbollah enters a US‑Iran war, a threat two Lebanese officials confirmed this week. Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI, says Iran would likely expect Hezbollah to contribute, most plausibly by pressuring Israel. But she adds Hezbollah faces a complicated domestic environment: integrationist pressure from President Joseph Aoun and the group’s political stake in Lebanon raise the costs of a major, open-ended war.
Hezbollah’s fragmentation
Hezbollah, whose military wing is designated a terrorist organization by the US, Germany and others, began firing at Israel in support of Hamas a day after Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack. A November 2024 ceasefire ended 11 months of skirmishes and two months of full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel. During that campaign Israel killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership and destroyed large parts of its infrastructure and arsenal, as well as swathes of southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut. About 4,000 people were killed and the World Bank estimates reconstruction costs around $11 billion.
The ceasefire required disarmament, but Hezbollah has relinquished weapons only south of the Litani River and refuses full disarmament, arguing it must be able to defend Lebanon against ongoing Israeli strikes and what it calls Israeli occupation of five points along the border. Israel says it will keep targeting Hezbollah as long as the group poses a threat. As part of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” — which includes Hamas, the Houthis and various Iraqi militias — Hezbollah views the United States and Israel as enemies.
Salam told Naharnet the state will continue efforts to disarm Hezbollah beyond Phase 1 (the area between the border and the Litani River), calling disarmament an “irreversible sovereign choice.” He was more cautious about Phase 2, north of the Litani, saying its implementation depends on factors including the outcome of an international conference to support the Lebanese Army scheduled for March 5, 2026, in Paris with participants from the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and France.
A report this week from the Institute for the Study of War warned that delaying disarmament will make it harder as Hezbollah reconstitutes forces. Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut said the group is still weaker than before the war and more fragmented, which fractures decision‑making. He noted the military wing opposes disarmament while the political wing — which holds parliamentary seats and runs social services and hospitals — is relatively more open to discussion. Hage Ali argued the political Shiite community carries significant influence in politics even if some factions resist disarmament.
RUSI’s Ozcelik said a plausible Hezbollah response to US‑Iran escalation would be symbolic participation: limited, calibrated attacks on Israeli targets to show solidarity with Tehran while trying to avoid triggering massive Israeli retaliation. She cautioned, however, that changing dynamics or direct Israeli action could force different responses.
‘I feel hopeless’
Lebanese civilians face little optimism. The population has endured economic collapse and political crisis since 2019, the Beirut port blast in August 2020, and the 2023–24 conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Many doubt international reconstruction efforts, which hinge on Hezbollah’s disarmament.
“I feel hopeless,” said Nadim El Riz, 35, a videographer near Saida. “I expect a big and deadly war between Iran and its proxies on one side and the US and Israel on the other.” Raymond Khoury, a 38‑year‑old fitness trainer in Beirut, said he fears Lebanon will be dragged into war because of Hezbollah’s ties to Iran. Fatima Naim, 27 and living in Beirut, said she lives day‑to‑day in denial, avoiding thoughts of escalation because she feels powerless and prefers to focus on daily life rather than constant fear.
Edited by: Jess Smee
This article was updated on February 26, 2026, to reflect the latest Hezbollah statement, and again on February 28 to reflect the US-backed Israeli strikes on Iran.