The first two state elections of the year have passed in Germany, and attention is returning to the federal government. For weeks the CDU/CSU–SPD coalition held off on governing to avoid alienating voters in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, even though long-overdue reforms that may require cuts to social benefits are needed.
After taking office in May 2025, Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised an “autumn of reforms” that never arrived. Prolonged inaction and political gridlock are now taking a toll: a Deutschlandtrend survey shows 84% of respondents are dissatisfied with the government’s performance — a record high since Merz took office. The poll, conducted by infratest dimap for broadcaster ARD, sampled 1,316 eligible voters over the last two days of March.
Merz’s and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil’s approval ratings have fallen sharply. Merz stands at 21% approval (down 8 points) and Klingbeil at 18% (down 15), their lowest ratings since taking office. Party support reflects this slump: the CDU/CSU is at 26% (–2 from last March) and the SPD at 12% (–2), the SPD returning to its 2019 low. The AfD rose to 25% (+2), the Greens to 14% (+1), and the Left to 10% (+1). The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the FDP remain at 3% each, below the parliamentary threshold.
Economic concerns weigh heavily. Three years of recession and a year of stagnation have shrunk industry, and production and jobs are relocating abroad. Early signs of improvement have been erased by the war in Iran; sustained high energy prices risk renewed inflation. Seventy percent of citizens do not trust the government to take necessary measures to improve the economy.
The coalition proposes a mix of tax cuts, lower energy prices, investment incentives, reduced bureaucracy, and further consumer relief measures planned after Easter to stabilize the economy short-term and boost competitiveness long-term.
On labor and migration policy, the government is considering allowing longer fixed-term contracts; the public is divided (48% in favor, 44% opposed). There is strong support (74%) for fast-tracking recognition of foreign professional qualifications so migrants can enter the workforce more quickly — support among AfD voters is 48%, while it ranges from 83% to 95% among voters of other parties.
Tax and social policy debates continue. To encourage labor force participation, the coalition is considering abolishing the “spousal splitting” tax benefit; 54% oppose this change and 32% support it. Ninety-one percent reject a general increase in value-added tax. Overall, 66% feel their personal tax burden is too high (28% say it is appropriate). About 76% would welcome tax breaks for low- and middle-income groups combined with higher taxes on high incomes.
Demographic change pressures pensions, health care, and long-term care. With fewer workers supporting more pensioners and a rapidly growing elderly care demand, current systems are seen as unsustainable. Seventy-four percent do not trust the government to make social security sustainable. Three expert commissions are working on reform proposals; the health commission published its findings at the end of March. Among its proposals, a majority of citizens support higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and soft drinks. At the same time, equal proportions oppose higher co-payments for medications and treatments, ending free spouse coverage, or capping reimbursements for private practitioners and hospitals.
This article was originally written in German.