Turkey entered 2026 with a diversified and booming tourism sector. Beyond its famed Mediterranean beaches, visitors increasingly seek cultural tours in eastern Anatolia and activities such as diving, mountaineering and hiking in once-restricted border areas. Official figures showed about 64 million tourists in 2025, generating roughly €56 billion — placing Turkey fourth worldwide after France, Spain and the United States, having overtaken Italy in 2024.
After heavy post-pandemic investment in comfort and safety, the industry had aimed for more than 65 million visitors and about €59 billion in revenue in 2026. Those targets have been interrupted by the US-Israel war with Iran, which has prompted cancellations and uncertainty, especially in border regions.
Tour operators and hoteliers report widespread cancellations and refund requests, particularly for eastern and southeastern provinces. Iran has been a major source market: Turkish Statistical Institute data show an average of 3.3 million visitors from Iran in recent years, making Iranians the fifth-largest arrival group after Russia, Germany, Britain and Bulgaria. Many Iranian travelers come for Nowruz, staying in hotels near the border, shopping and visiting relatives — but this year those hotels are largely empty.
Onur Tuncdemir of Ayanis Tour says travel from neighboring eastern and southeastern countries has ‘come to a complete standstill’, with agents spending much of their time processing cancellations and returning deposits. He notes the sector was already affected by anti-regime protests in Iran in late 2025 and early 2026, but business collapsed after February 28, 2026, coinciding with Nowruz and the end of Ramadan — normally a busy window.
By contrast, Kaan Kavaloglu, chairman of the Union of Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers and Operators (AKTOB), emphasizes that prime destinations like Istanbul, Bodrum and Antalya remain safe and have not seen widespread cancellations. He reports particular caution among British travelers, while arrivals from Russia and Germany have been steadier.
International forecasters warn of broader fallout. Oxford Economics projected inbound arrivals to the Middle East could drop 11–27% year-on-year in 2026 because of the conflict, and noted that Gulf-state airports — which handle about 14% of global flights — could trigger a domino effect if disrupted. Analysts remain cautious given the fluid situation.
Mehmet Isler, chairman of the Aegean Tourism Enterprises and Accommodation Association (ETIK), expressed confidence in the sector’s resilience, pointing to recoveries from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the Armenia–Azerbaijan clashes. He acknowledged heavy cancellations from Iran and parts of the Arab world but suggested some travelers might divert to Turkey’s safer Mediterranean coast, potentially offsetting some losses. He added that the next four to six weeks would be decisive and that the industry is factoring in short-term setbacks.
So far Turkey — a NATO member and EU candidate — has not been directly attacked, though NATO air defenses have shot down three missiles fired in Turkey’s direction. As Easter approaches, European travelers are weighing options: on March 11 the German Foreign Office issued a travel warning advising against non-essential trips to Turkish regions bordering Iran, Iraq and Syria.
The immediate picture is mixed: heavy disruption in border areas and among Iranian visitors, steadier demand in major coastal destinations, and uncertain wider effects depending on how the conflict and regional air links evolve.