A month into the war involving Iran, African countries are scrambling to keep fuel supplies flowing. In Kenya, petrol stations report shortages of about 20%, which suppliers largely blame on panic buying. Kenya typically holds two to three weeks of fuel demand in stock, underscoring its dependence on continuous imports and exposure to global supply disruptions.
Tanzania has seen pump prices jump by more than 30%, levels last seen during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Current supplies could meet demand for roughly another month, suggesting further increases are possible. In Ethiopia, the government has ordered suppliers to prioritize deliveries to state projects and major industries, while fuel deliveries to the Tigray region have been halted amid fears of renewed conflict.
South Sudan, though home to promising oil reserves, lacks refining capacity; the small amount it refines is largely used to generate an unreliable national electricity supply. Attiya Waris, an independent UN expert on foreign debt and human rights, warned the crisis could deepen. “On average in most African countries, we still have only 40% electricity penetration,” she said, adding that for those on the grid there is a real risk of growing electricity shortages.
Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria, is attempting to expand refining through state-run facilities and the private Dangote Petroleum Refinery near Lagos. Dangote’s output is rising, but Nigeria’s neglected state refineries limit domestic refining, so the country continues to export crude while importing refined products.
Waris noted that oil-producing countries like Nigeria and Angola are constrained by debts to the IMF and private creditors, which can force petroleum exports to service debt rather than supply domestic markets. She also warned that global petroleum depletion is causing factory shutdowns in some places.
To cope, Waris urged rapid market interventions such as price controls and other measures to protect domestic access to fuel. She pointed out that other regions have used movement restrictions or closures to conserve fuel for essential domestic uses, but similar measures have not been widely adopted across Africa.
South Africa offers a recent example of government action. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s coalition agreed to steps to lessen the impact at the pump, with the Democratic Alliance pushing to lower fuel levies to spare consumers. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana cautioned that cutting levies immediately after approving the fiscal budget could be premature without knowing the war’s duration or long-term effects.
James Lorimer of the DA said South Africa’s exposure is somewhat limited because only about 20% of its crude imports come from the Middle East, giving it some flexibility to diversify suppliers. He suggested the government could secure additional refined petrol from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery. Minerals Minister Gwede Mantashe proposed restarting some decommissioned refineries, though that would carry significant environmental costs.
Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu