Massive airstrikes by the US and Israel on Iran and the Iranian regime’s fierce response have pushed the Middle East into crisis. A recent ARD Deutschlandtrend survey finds three-quarters of Germans feel threatened by the global situation and are highly worried.
The US-Israeli operation is widely rejected in Germany: six in 10 do not see the offensive as justified. That opposition is lower than in previous cases: 72% rejected the 2026 US strikes on Venezuela and 80% viewed the 2003 Iraq War as unjustified. The poll was conducted by infratest-dimap among 1,317 eligible German voters between March 2 and 4.
Voters’ views vary by party. Only 48% of AfD and CDU/CSU voters condemn the attack, while 82% of voters for parties left of center oppose it. Three-quarters of respondents fear the fighting will spread to other countries, and eight in 10 worry about effects on global trade. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz has left many oil tankers stranded and pushed oil prices up, driving higher fuel costs at German pumps.
Concern for Iranians is also high: seven in 10 express worry about the population there. A broad majority fears that, amid many global conflicts, “might makes right” is overriding international law.
Trust in major powers remains low. Just 15% regard the US as a reliable partner for Germany (unchanged since January), and only 12% trust Russia. Israel is viewed skeptically by most Germans, with nearly seven in 10 not considering it a trustworthy partner. Opinions on Ukraine are mixed: about four in 10 trust Ukraine, while just under half are doubtful. France and the UK are seen as reliable partners by most respondents.
Perceptions of threat to Germany have risen: at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, slightly more than half saw the global situation as a threat to German security. Today, that share exceeds three-quarters.
The German government is also worried. The Gulf crisis adds to existing strains: the economy is struggling and an aging population is increasing pressure on the welfare system. A prolonged war in Iran could further damage the global economy and hit Germany hard.
The coalition of CDU/CSU and the SPD has been in office ten months. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) promised improvements, but an economic upswing has yet to appear, frustrating many citizens. Satisfaction with the government is limited mostly to conservative supporters; overall, three-quarters of those surveyed are dissatisfied—levels similar to the previous center-left government that collapsed after three years.
If a federal election were held now, the governing parties would lack a majority. Current standings in the Deutschlandtrend: CDU/CSU 28% (+2), SPD 14% (-1), AfD 23% (-1), Greens 13% (+1), Left 9% (-1). No other party would clear the 5% Bundestag threshold.
This article was originally written in German.
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