Recent developments in North Korea have sparked speculation about succession. Kim Yo Jong, sister of leader Kim Jong Un, was promoted to the ministerial-level post of party director at the Ninth Congress of the ruling Workers’ Party and was nominated as a candidate for the Politburo, state media reported. At the same time, Kim Jong Un’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, believed to be about 13 years old, has been given increased media exposure, appearing frequently at high-profile events alongside her father, including a recent nighttime military parade.
Some commentators have suggested the moves could presage a future power struggle between the daughter and the sister. The UK Telegraph, for example, raised the possibility that efforts to elevate Kim Ju Ae might bring her into conflict with other powerful family figures. However, former South Korean intelligence officials and analysts contacted by DW offered more cautious assessments.
Han Ki Bum, a former deputy chief of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, described talk of a rivalry as “a hypothetical scenario with low credibility.” He pointed out that personal tensions could exist—for example, between Kim Yo Jong and Ri Sol Ju, Kim Jong Un’s wife—but Kim Yo Jong, as an aide to the leader, must ultimately follow her brother’s authority. Han emphasized Kim Ju Ae’s young age and absence from the party congress as reasons she cannot yet be considered an heir. He also noted that Kim Jong Un’s own power base is not fully consolidated and that succession conversations are premature except in the event of serious health problems decades from now. According to Han, the daughter’s public appearances are intended to signal continuity and validate Kim Jong Un’s leadership, with her presence at missile launches and military sites intended to send a message about the next generation.
Kim Hyongseok, a former South Korean vice minister of unification, similarly suggested Kim Ju Ae may be being used symbolically to represent the future generation, while warning that assigning her any formal title would be difficult given her age. He said rumors of a rivalry between the daughter and Kim Yo Jong are unlikely for now, though such a scenario could be reconsidered if Kim Ju Ae were formally designated successor and an unusual situation arose regarding Kim Jong Un.
Jeong Joon Hee, a former Unification Ministry spokesperson, called speculation about a power struggle premature. He warned that a succession framework can proceed only after potential challengers are fully neutralized and argued that Kim Jong Un would deal firmly with any obstacle to his succession plans, even if that person were his sister. Jeong added that a sudden death of Kim Jong Un could elevate Kim Yo Jong to a central role, although ambitious military figures might also vie for influence.
Another former senior Unification Ministry official, speaking anonymously, said experts are divided on whether Kim Ju Ae has been designated heir. He noted that while ceremonial gestures might elevate her standing, it is too early for a formal succession declaration. He added that this would normally be the period for overseas education—Kim Jong Un and Kim Yo Jong studied in Switzerland—but Kim Ju Ae’s high public profile would make studying abroad difficult. Citing a defected North Korean diplomat, the official said it would be impossible for Kim Yo Jong to become the top leader, because direct descendants traditionally take precedence in North Korean succession.
In sum, analysts emphasize that while Kim Yo Jong’s promotion and Kim Ju Ae’s growing visibility fuel speculation, concrete succession plans remain unclear. Both symbolic elevation of the daughter and the sister’s institutional rise could be part of a strategy to reinforce the regime’s stability and Kim Jong Un’s authority, but a clear transfer of power or an open contest between family members appears unlikely at present.
Edited by: Darko Janjevic