CRAFTSBURY COMMON, Vt. — At tiny Sterling College, newborn lambs cavort under the watchful eyes of students who tend the 130-acre farm that is central to the school’s hands-on agricultural curriculum. For seniors like LillyAnne Keeley, the remote setting — no cell service, few passing cars and wide sunsets — was part of the draw. Now students are savoring their last semester: Sterling has announced it will close in May.
Sterling’s planned wind-down, which gives students a final semester to graduate or transfer, is a rare mercy. It also illustrates a broader crisis: a new forecast from Huron Consulting Group estimates that 442 of the nation’s roughly 1,700 private, nonprofit four-year colleges and universities — enrolling about 670,000 students — are at risk of closure or forced merger over the next decade. More than 120 institutions are categorized at the highest risk.
Huron arrived at that projection by analyzing enrollment trends, tuition revenue, assets, debt, cash on hand and other financial indicators. “We have too many seats. We have too many classrooms,” said Peter Stokes, a Huron managing director, predicting a shakeout over the next five to 10 years.
The human toll is immediate. Research from the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association (SHEEO) shows that fewer than half of students at closed colleges continue their education; among those who do, many lose credits and less than half eventually earn degrees. Twenty-year-old Izzy Johnson, who enrolled at Sterling after his preferred college closed the month before he graduated high school, now faces the prospect of moving again to finish his degree in agricultural and food systems. “Having to pick up everything and find a new place to settle down is really miserable,” he said.
Sterling, one of nine U.S. “work colleges” where students combine earning credits with work on campus, peaked at about 120 students in its history but enrolled about 40 this year — a level the institution could not financially sustain despite previously breaking even. It is the seventh private Vermont college to close since 2016.
Experts point to a convergence of long-term trends driving the pressure. There are roughly 2.3 million fewer college students than in 2010. A declining birthrate means the pool of 18-year-olds will shrink further through at least 2041. The share of high school graduates who go on to college dropped from about 70% in 2016 to 61% in 2023. International student enrollments have been hit hard: recent visa issuance fell sharply, reducing a source of full-tuition revenue. Looming caps on federal graduate student loans will likely depress demand for graduate programs, another income stream.
“Every major revenue stream and expense category is under pressure at the same time,” warns the higher education consulting firm EAB. Nearly 86% of college and university leaders reported concern about their schools’ long-term financial viability in an American Council on Education survey. One in five presidents said they’ve had serious discussions about merging with another institution, according to separate polling.
Financial strain is no longer confined to small private colleges. Research from Robert Kelchen shows almost a third of private, nonprofit colleges posted deficits in 2024. Public universities face rising pressures as state revenues weaken and costs rise, prompting layoffs and asset sales at some larger institutions. The University of Southern California laid off more than 900 employees; Stanford, Northwestern and DePaul have also reduced staff. George Washington University sold a satellite campus in Virginia in what its leadership framed as a strategy to shore up finances.
Community colleges — which enroll nearly 5.6 million students and often serve as economic and workforce anchors — are also squeezed. Observers warn that the cumulative effect may be a slow erosion of capacity in institutions that communities rely on most, even if outright collapses are less common.
For small rural towns, college closures can leave lasting damage. Sterling students and alumni have long stayed in the area, working, starting businesses and building families. “They contribute to the community,” said Liz Chadwick, a former student who now teaches food systems at Sterling. President Scott Thomas said losing colleges like Sterling “leaves craters in the small rural communities that they have been a part of for, in some instances, decades or a century.”
On campus this semester, however, students have tried to focus on finishing well. Community meetings, farm chores and a determination to “have a really good last semester” marked the atmosphere, Keeley said. First-year student Jack Beatson, who plans to transfer to another small college, said the experience of belonging at a small school mattered deeply. “Just feeling like you’re really part of something, and other people depend on you — that’s very important to young people especially,” he said.
The wider public response has been mixed. Some online commentators framed closures as market corrections or ideological retribution, while many students and faculty express gratitude for the educational experiences and close communities that small colleges provide.
The industry’s leaders and analysts say adjustments and consolidations are likely inevitable. Huron’s forecast, industry surveys and financial analyses together suggest that a significant portion of private, nonprofit higher education is vulnerable, with ripple effects for students, faculty, staff and the communities that host colleges.
For those at Sterling, the closure is both an ending and a testament to what they valued. “I’m so glad I got to spend at least a year here,” Beatson said. “We’ll all take this place with us, wherever we end up.”