LIMA — Even by Peru’s recent turbulent standards, this presidential election threatens to confuse and unsettle voters. A record 35 candidates appear on the ballot — a symptom of political fragmentation after nearly a new president almost every year for the past decade. The long ballot, with photos and party symbols, reflects both historically low literacy in parts of the country and a crowded field that includes many little-known contenders polling around one percent.
No contender enjoys broad support, so a June run-off between the top two finishers is all but certain. Leading, but only marginally, is Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the 1990s leader Alberto Fujimori. She has tried to invoke her father’s record on tackling hyperinflation and defeating the Shining Path while distancing herself from his human rights violations and corruption scandals. Polls place her near 10 percent — a figure that may represent both her base and ceiling amid wide rejection: one recent survey found 54 percent of Peruvians say they would never vote for her. Fujimori has reached run-offs in 2011, 2016 and 2021 and could again face defeat in a final round.
Behind her sits a cluster of candidates in the mid- to high-single digits, any of whom could surge late and make the second round. Among them: Rafael López Aliaga, an ultra-conservative former Lima mayor often compared to Donald Trump, who has alleged — without evidence publicly shown — looming fraud and has publicly threatened the head of ONPE, Peru’s electoral agency. Carlos Álvarez, a Fujimori ally better known for political parody than for policy, has stumbled in debates. Ricardo Belmont, an octogenarian left-populist, remains polarizing after a long career marked by sexist, homophobic and xenophobic comments.
Voters overwhelmingly say they want political newcomers unlinked to the current Congress, which is deeply unpopular and near a 90 percent disapproval rating. Critics contend that laws passed by Congress have favored organized crime interests and that entrenched impunity and corruption at high levels have deepened instability and allowed criminal networks to expand.
Those concerns are reinforced by daily realities: an extortion epidemic, a recent rise in homicides to record levels, and worsening food security. The World Food Programme estimates the share of Peruvians facing food insecurity rose from roughly 25 percent before the pandemic to about 51 percent now.
Sunday’s vote offers a chance to change course, but with so many contenders clustered in single digits the immediate outcome is likely more uncertainty and a runoff that will determine whether Peru continues along recent trajectories or shifts toward a different political path.