LIMA, Peru — Even by recent Peruvian standards of turbulence, this Sunday’s presidential election threatens to bewilder the country’s 27 million voters.
A record 35 candidates are on the ballot — a symptom of deep political instability that has produced nearly a new president each year for almost a decade. The long ballot, displaying photos and party symbols, reflects a practice rooted in low historical literacy and a crowded field that includes many unknowns polling at about one percent.
With no candidate commanding broad support, a June run-off between the top two finishers is all but guaranteed. Leading the pack, though only marginally, is Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the controversial 1990s leader Alberto Fujimori. She has tried to balance invoking her father’s record on taming hyperinflation and defeating the Shining Path insurgency while distancing herself from his human rights abuses and corruption scandals. Polls put her around 10%, a level that may be both her floor and ceiling amid widespread rejection: one recent survey found 54% of Peruvians say they would never vote for her. Keiko has reached the run-off stage in 2011, 2016 and 2021 and could yet again be edged out in a final round.
Trailing her is a cluster of half a dozen candidates in the mid-to-high single digits, any of whom could surge late and reach the second round. Among them is Rafael López Aliaga, the ultra-conservative former mayor of Lima often compared to Donald Trump; he has made unproven claims of impending electoral fraud and publicly threatened the head of ONPE, Peru’s electoral agency. Carlos Álvarez, a Fujimori ally better known for political parody than policy, has struggled to answer basic questions in debates. Ricardo Belmont, an octogenarian left-populist, remains a divisive figure after a long career marked by sexist, homophobic and xenophobic remarks.
Voters overwhelmingly say they want newcomers unconnected to the current congress, which is deeply unpopular. Congress has passed measures critics say benefit organized crime and currently sits near a 90% disapproval rating. Anti-corruption activists argue that entrenched impunity and corruption at high levels have fueled political instability and opened space for criminal networks to expand.
Those concerns are heightened by daily realities: an extortion epidemic, a recent spike in homicides to record levels, and plunging food security. According to the World Food Programme, the share of Peruvians facing food insecurity rose from about 25% before the pandemic to roughly 51% now.
Sunday’s vote offers Peruvians a chance to change course, but with so many contenders stuck in single digits, the immediate result is likely to be more uncertainty and a run-off that will decide whether the country continues on its recent trajectory or turns toward a new political direction.