Plastics now permeate people and places worldwide — inside bodies, across oceans and into the Arctic. A new study in The Lancet Planetary Health warns that, unless course is changed, emissions from plastics across their full life cycle could more than double the material’s harm to human health by 2040.
The study looks beyond litter and microplastics to the pollution released at every stage: fossil fuel extraction, manufacturing, transport, recycling and disposal. About 99% of plastics are made from fossil fuels and are used in packaging, furniture, clothing, construction, medical devices and tires. Across its life cycle, plastic generation produces greenhouse gases, fine particulate matter and toxic chemicals that damage health directly (for example by worsening respiratory and cardiovascular disease) and indirectly through climate change.
This research is the first to estimate healthy years of life lost from plastics’ life-cycle emissions using the public-health metric disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The authors combined modeled future plastic production under six scenarios with emissions and health-impact calculations. Their baseline year was 2016, when they estimate roughly 2.1 million healthy life years (DALYs) were lost globally because of plastics’ life-cycle emissions.
Projecting forward, they estimate cumulative losses of about 83 million healthy life years between 2016 and 2040. Under a business-as-usual scenario — where production, recycling rates and waste leakage remain largely unchanged — annual health losses would exceed 4.5 million DALYs in 2040, more than double the 2016 level. Even the most optimistic scenario, featuring reduced use, higher recycling and improved waste management, still yields about 2.6 million DALYs lost in 2040, roughly 0.5 million more than in 2016.
The scale is striking: one external researcher observed that the projected more-than-4-million lost healthy life years in 2040 would equal roughly five hours of lost full health for every person on Earth. Plastics already account for about 4.5% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions — a smaller share than energy or agriculture but one that is growing as production expands.
Harms are also highly concentrated. In Louisiana, a corridor of more than 200 petrochemical plants linked to plastic production — known locally as ‘Cancer Alley’ — has been associated with elevated cancer risk. Globally, the OECD projects plastic consumption could nearly triple by 2060; as production rises, so will emissions and the associated health burden.
The authors stress their estimates are conservative. They excluded potential health impacts from micro- and nanoplastics and from toxic chemicals that can leach from plastic products during everyday use because reliable global data are lacking. Those omissions mean the true health costs of plastics are almost certainly higher — the researchers call their results “the tip of the iceberg.”
To curb plastic-related health damage, the study’s authors and other experts say the most effective step is making less new plastic. That requires cutting consumption, eliminating unnecessary items, switching to reuse systems and reserving plastics for uses without viable alternatives. They also recommend banning hazardous chemicals in plastic production and harmonizing measures internationally under a strong, legally binding global plastics treaty that covers the full life cycle and associated chemicals.
Progress toward such a treaty has met political obstacles: UN talks on a global plastics agreement stalled last year after disagreements, including resistance from major oil-producing states to limits on new production. Still, the researchers emphasize that meaningful action can be taken now at individual, organizational, local and national levels to reduce plastic pollution and its growing health toll.
This article was adapted from a report originally published in German and translated into English.