Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame has warned he could pull Rwandan forces out of Mozambique’s violence-wracked Cabo Delgado province as early as May, using the threat to pressure European backers. The deployment, fighting Islamist insurgents, may end unless the European Union provides a clear, reliable funding commitment, Kigali says. Reports indicate Brussels is considering ending support; since 2022 the EU has contributed about $46 million (€39 million), reportedly less than one-fifth of Rwanda’s stated costs.
The mission’s true cost is disputed. Mozambican security expert Borges Nhamirre of the Institute for Security Studies told DW that figures from Kigali are hard to verify. Rwanda, he said, invoices transport through state airline RwandAir in ways that make it unclear whether those costs reflect real expenses, raising the possibility of overstatement.
A Rwandan withdrawal would be a major security shock for Mozambique and a geopolitical risk for Europe. Nhamirre believes an abrupt pullout is unlikely, since much is at stake for Kigali, including business interests. Rwanda’s commitment appears long term: anticipated gains are tied to the gradual development of offshore gas projects, and private Rwandan security firms expect contracts from international investors. Europe also has a clear stake in stabilizing the gas fields, where major investors include firms from France, Italy and other European states; some shipments have already reached Europe.
Rwanda’s forces, over 4,000 strong since their 2021 deployment at the Mozambican government’s request, are difficult to replace. They have restored security around major energy projects interrupted by terrorism and bring experience and local networks. Nhamirre notes they now hold “institutional memory.” Any new contingent would face a steep learning curve against a guerrilla movement that blends into fishing and farming communities.
At the same time, Kigali faces growing political pressure. EU and US sanctions tied to Rwanda’s alleged involvement in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo complicate extensions of funding. Nhamirre highlights a paradox: the EU funds the Cabo Delgado mission while politically opposing Rwanda’s actions in eastern Congo, creating a risk that European money could indirectly touch both conflicts.
The issue is controversial inside EU institutions. Portuguese MEP Helder Sousa Silva (EPP), a member of the Security and Defence Committee, warns against letting funding lapse, arguing the Mozambique mission should be judged separately from Rwanda’s role in Congo. He stresses that Europe’s interest in Cabo Delgado is about security and Mozambique’s stability, and that the financial cost for the EU is manageable; the challenge, he says, is collective political will. Sousa Silva warns that European withdrawal could leave a vacuum readily filled by actors with questionable intentions.
Mozambique’s situation remains fragile. Its own security forces are not yet able to stabilize the zone alone, and a military-first approach does not address root causes such as poverty, exclusion and lack of prospects. Rwanda’s withdrawal threat functions as calculated leverage: Kigali signals that maintaining security will require compensation. For Europe, the question is whether it is willing to pay that price.
This article was originally written in German.
