Slovenia’s parliamentary vote on Sunday delivered a virtual tie between Prime Minister Robert Golob’s liberal Freedom Movement and the opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) led by populist Janez Janša. With roughly 99% of ballots tallied, the Freedom Movement had about 28.5% of the vote to the SDS’s 28.1%. An early exit poll had given Golob a larger lead, but that margin narrowed as counting continued.
Neither camp appears close to an outright majority in the 90-seat National Assembly, leaving smaller parties likely to determine who can form a government. Speaking after near-final results, Golob said he was confident he could lead the next government while acknowledging that ‘tough negotiations lie ahead.’ He added that in the next term his team would work to ensure a better future and looked forward to moving ahead ‘under a free sun.’
The outcome is widely viewed as consequential for Slovenia, a 2-million-person EU member state, and for the broader balance between liberal and illiberal forces in Europe. Golob’s government has pushed a pro-EU, liberal agenda, while Janša and the SDS have aligned rhetorically with illiberal leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico; Janša has also expressed admiration for former U.S. President Donald Trump. Since gaining independence from communist Yugoslavia in 1991, Slovenia has often swung between these political currents. The country joined both the EU and NATO in 2004.
The campaign’s closing weeks were overshadowed by allegations of foreign election interference. Journalists and activists accused Janša of hiring the Israeli private intelligence firm Black Cube to assist his campaign, including producing videos that purported to show government corruption. Janša has acknowledged contacts with Black Cube but denied that any outside interference took place. Slovenian authorities said Black Cube operatives visited Ljubljana multiple times during the campaign and were observed near SDS party headquarters.
Golob urged an EU-level investigation while attending a summit in Brussels, arguing action was needed to protect other states approaching elections. Black Cube, which was founded and run by former Mossad agents, has not publicly responded to these specific allegations. The firm maintains it operates legally and ethically but has faced controversy before, including over work linked to efforts to discredit people who accused film producer Harvey Weinstein of sexual abuse.
With no clear majority, coalition talks now loom. The positions of smaller parties and their willingness to negotiate with either bloc will determine whether Slovenia continues on its current course or shifts toward the more illiberal alliances advocated by the SDS.
Edited by: Kieran Burke