Germany’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the country’s oldest political party, face a precarious year as five federal states prepare to elect new parliaments. Recent polls suggest the SPD could be voted out of power in two states it has governed for decades, while in two others its support has fallen into the single digits.
Founded in 1863 as a workers’ party, the SPD once anchored itself in blue-collar communities by promising education, social rights and protection for factory workers. As industrial employment declined and many former industrial workers moved into the middle class, that traditional working-class base largely eroded. A growing share of voters who feel left behind now lean toward the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD): a Forsa survey in November 2025 found only 9 percent of blue-collar workers and the unemployed would vote SPD, and an infratest-dimap post-election poll after the February 2025 general election reported that about 38 percent of working-class voters backed the AfD.
The SPD also lost supporters to the Left Party, which was formed in 2007 from a merger of the successor to East Germany’s ruling party and a Western SPD splinter. Many defections trace back to the Agenda 2010 reforms introduced by Gerhard Schröder during his chancellorship (1998–2005). Those reforms cut benefits, loosened employment protections and expanded the low-wage sector. They helped revive the economy but alienated the SPD’s left wing and pushed parts of its electorate toward the Left, the Greens and even the CDU, whose drift toward the center under Angela Merkel blurred traditional party lines. Years of grand coalitions between the SPD and CDU/CSU from 2005 to 2021 further weakened the SPD’s distinct profile.
A brief comeback in 2021 saw the SPD rise to 25.7 percent and Olaf Scholz become chancellor, but the expected long-term revival faltered. The three-way government under Scholz was dogged by internal disputes and collapsed after three years. In the 2025 election the SPD dropped to around 16 percent, prompting pollster Manfred Güllner of Forsa to warn of an existential threat.
After the 2025 vote the SPD entered government again, this time as junior partner to a more conservative CDU/CSU under Friedrich Merz. The party now struggles to carve out a clear identity while sharing power. It is drafting a new left-leaning platform for 2027 that emphasizes social policies, but credibility is uncertain given coalition constraints. With strained public finances and weak growth, major reforms to welfare, pensions, healthcare and elder care are on the agenda; the SPD accepts some reforms but presses for more humane measures and has seen a modest poll uptick campaigning on social equality. Still, the federal government has been reluctant to clash openly before the state elections, contributing to policy paralysis.
Political analysts say the SPD and CDU will reassess strategy after the first two state votes in March in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, where the SPD has led governments since 1991. Losing either would intensify pressure inside the SPD to distance itself from the CDU/CSU at the national level.
This article was originally written in German. DW editors produce a weekly Berlin politics roundup called Berlin Briefing; readers can sign up for the newsletter.