A historic drop in representation by Black members of Congress may be on the way after the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark decision Wednesday to further weaken the Voting Rights Act.
The court’s conservative majority reinterpreted longstanding protections against racial discrimination under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Republican calls for new rounds of congressional map drawing have already begun. How much redistricting can be done in time for this fall’s midterm election is unclear, and many states have already held or are close to holding congressional primaries.
Looking beyond this November, redistricting experts expect Republican-controlled state legislatures in the South to try to eliminate at least some House districts with sizable racial minority populations now represented by Black Democrats—districts that were likely protected under the court’s previous interpretation of Section 2. From Louisiana eastward to North Carolina, at least 15 House districts are now at risk, according to an NPR analysis earlier this year. That list grows if newly redrawn districts in Missouri and Texas are included.
Exactly how redistricting will play out is uncertain. Some Democratic-led states might reshape majority-minority districts to spread voters and try to gain additional seats, while some GOP-led states might keep those districts to pack Democratic-leaning voters. Still, losing even a handful of these districts could produce the largest-ever decline in the number of Black representatives on Capitol Hill—surpassing a drop that occurred around the end of Reconstruction in 1877.
Black-represented districts were in the single digits or at zero for a century after the Civil War. Since the Voting Rights Act of 1965, that number grew to 63 districts, about 14% of the House.
Members of the Congressional Black Caucus reacted swiftly. “With this decision in Louisiana v. Callais, the Supreme Court has opened the door to a coordinated attack on Black voters across this country,” Rep. Yvette Clarke of New York, chair of the caucus, said at a press conference. “This is an outright power grab. It’s about silencing Black voices, dismantling majority Black districts and rigging the maps so that politicians can choose their voters instead of the other way around.”
The court ruled that a Louisiana congressional district drawn to comply with Section 2 was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander and held that Section 2 should focus on intentional racial discrimination. Rep. Terri Sewell of Alabama, who has led efforts to shore up and expand the Voting Rights Act, said she plans to revise her bill to reflect recent court cases that have sought to gut the law. “Listen, we cannot give up,” Sewell said. “We’re not going to give up.”
Atiba Ellis, a law professor and associate dean at Case Western Reserve University, warned the partisan gerrymandering battle between Republicans and Democrats could worsen with a weakened Voting Rights Act. “This could distort politics in Washington substantially by preventing communities of color from genuinely being heard,” Ellis said. “I think it highly ironic that under the guise of a colorblind Constitution communities of color in a diversifying America could lose the lion’s share of their voice in government.”
Edited by Benjamin Swasey