Thailand heads to the polls on February 8 amid a prolonged period of political instability. Since the last election three years ago, the winning party was dissolved and two prime ministers were removed from office. The snap election was called in December, after interim Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul faced a no-confidence vote and tensions flared along the border with Cambodia.
The vote will pit Anutin’s conservative Bhumjaithai party against the anti-establishment People’s Party and the former ruling Pheu Thai. Observers say it is unlikely any single party will win an outright majority. “The 2017 constitution was engineered precisely to prevent such an outcome, favoring a fragmented parliament that necessitates coalition haggling,” Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a professor at Kyoto University’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies, told DW.
People’s Party leading in polls
Two late-January opinion polls showed the People’s Party with a clear lead and its leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, as voters’ top choice for prime minister. The People’s Party is the successor to the dissolved Move Forward and Future Forward parties. In 2023 Move Forward won the most seats but was blocked from forming a government by a military-appointed Senate; that upper house no longer holds the same power now.
Move Forward had pushed for bold changes to curb military influence and overhaul Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté law. The People’s Party has since softened its stance. “This is a move born of survivalist realpolitik, intended to shed the ‘radical’ label and avoid the judicial guillotine that claimed Move Forward,” Pavin said.
Punchada Sirivunnabood, a political science professor at Mahidol University, expects the People’s Party to build on its predecessor’s success and perform even better. Still, she and other analysts say the faction is unlikely to secure a single-party majority in the 500-seat assembly. “In a best-case scenario for the People’s Party, it will win around 200 seats” under Thailand’s two-ballot system, she said. Mathis Lohatepanont, a PhD student in political science at the University of Michigan, warned that polls do not always capture constituency-level dynamics.
Bhumjaithai expected to stay in power
Thailand’s House of Representatives has 500 seats: 100 allocated by proportional representation and 400 elected in single-member constituencies. “The general election will hinge on whether or not voters decide to detach local attachments from the national sentiment,” Mathis told DW.
Bhumjaithai could end up the main beneficiary, given its leverage as the ruling party, deep local networks, and defections from other parties, said Suthikarn Meechan, an assistant professor at Mahasarakham University’s College of Politics and Governance. Bhumjaithai “relies on the strength of its local networks,” while the People’s Party’s support is concentrated among urban and younger voters. “Although the latter’s support base is expanding, it remains concentrated in certain areas, making it difficult for any single party to cover both urban and rural voter bases simultaneously,” Suthikarn added.
Pavin agreed that Bhumjaithai holds a strategic advantage, describing it as having “successfully positioned itself as the ‘Goldilocks’ choice for the establishment — pro-monarchy and pro-military, yet with a civilian, populist face.”
Pheu Thai: Thailand’s waning dynasty
Anutin’s rise to the premiership in September 2025 followed a court order that removed then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who remains the driving force behind Pheu Thai. Thaksin’s political dynasty has shaped Thai politics for over two decades, but after the removal of two prime ministers, Pheu Thai appears headed for one of its weakest performances in decades.
A National Institute of Development Administration survey projected Pheu Thai in third place with roughly 17% of the vote — a steep decline from its heyday. “The fall of the Shinawatras — culminating in Thaksin’s imprisonment and Paetongtarn’s disqualification — has ended an era of Thai politics,” Pavin said.
Paetongtarn’s leaked phone call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and the ensuing border conflict seem to have hurt the party most before parliament was dissolved, Mathis said. The border dispute has driven a rise in nationalist sentiment, which Pavin described as the “hidden hand” of this election; he argued the caretaker Bhumjaithai government has “expertly leveraged” the conflict to manufacture a nationalist “rally around the flag” effect.
Pheu Thai is campaigning on a lottery-style stimulus called “Nine New Millionaires a Day,” which Pavin called a desperate attempt to reclaim populist appeal that lacks the structural weight of past successes. Still, Suthikarn warned that the Shinawatra-backed group retains significant potential in some northeastern provinces and should not be underestimated. She noted polls may underestimate Pheu Thai, prompting the party to adjust strategies and campaign harder.
Constitutional referendum and democratic stakes
Alongside electing a new parliament, Thai voters will take part in a constitutional referendum asking whether there should be a new constitution. The ballot will offer “Yes,” “No,” or “No opinion.” A majority “Yes” would not immediately adopt a new charter but would give parliament a public mandate to begin a multi-stage drafting process that would require two further referendums before a new constitution could be adopted.
Experts see drafting a new constitution as critical for Thailand’s democratic development. Suthikarn said a constitution is not merely a legal framework but the foundation that defines power distribution and relations between institutions. “Without a total rewrite — one that removes the military’s hand from the Senate and restores the principle of ‘people’s sovereignty’ — Thailand will remain trapped in a cycle of short-lived governments and judicial coups,” Pavin said.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru