Since 2016, Baden-Württemberg in southwestern Germany has been governed by a coalition of the Greens and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). With the state election set for March 8, polls show the two parties running almost neck and neck. Longtime premier Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens, who will turn 78 in May, is not standing for re‑election, leaving the race open.
Recent surveys give the CDU a narrow edge, but the Greens remain close enough that the outcome is uncertain. A CDU win would represent a return to the state’s traditional pattern: from the early 1950s until 2011 the CDU dominated Baden-Württemberg before Kretschmann broke that streak. Despite the state’s conservative reputation, the Greens have built support not only in cities such as Stuttgart and the university town of Tübingen but also across many rural areas.
Baden-Württemberg is one of Europe’s most dynamic economic regions. It has roughly 11 million residents, low unemployment and is home to major carmakers including Mercedes‑Benz and Porsche, along with numerous successful family-owned firms. Of Germany’s 1,000 largest companies, about 190 are based in the state. It also borders France to the west and Switzerland to the south, tying it closely to cross-border trade and labor markets.
The Greens’ lead candidate is Cem Özdemir, a nationally known politician who previously led the Green party and has served as federal agriculture minister. After a period of trailing the CDU, Özdemir narrowed the gap during the campaign and is viewed as considerably more popular than the CDU’s candidate, Manuel Hagel. Özdemir’s appeal reaches beyond the typical Green base: polling and analysts say he draws support from older voters and some former CDU backers. He also won a direct Bundestag mandate in Stuttgart in 2021, one of the Greens’ rare constituency victories at the federal level.
Hagel has faced controversy after an eight‑year‑old video resurfaced in which he appeared to make sexist remarks; he has dismissed the comments as “rubbish.” Lately his campaign has emphasized criticism of the far right’s economic policies.
The centre‑left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is struggling in the state. A result below ten percent would be a major blow for the SPD and could hurt morale at the federal level, where the party is part of the governing coalition in Berlin. Longstanding competition between the Greens and the CDU in Baden‑Württemberg has pushed the SPD toward the margins, and the party has also lost voters to parties on the right that address social and economic concerns traditionally associated with social democracy.
The far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling at roughly 20 percent. Its regional figurehead, Markus Frohnmaier, is a prominent Bundestag deputy and the AfD parliamentary group’s deputy leader in Berlin, but he has indicated he does not plan to enter the state parliament. His chances of becoming premier are effectively nil: both CDU and Green frontrunners have ruled out cooperation with the AfD. Analysts note the AfD’s support is particularly strong among middle‑aged men, workers and people who feel economically insecure.
This election will be the first under recent electoral reforms: voters will cast two votes, as in federal elections—one for a direct candidate in each of the 70 constituencies and one for a party list that determines seat allocation in the state parliament. For the first time, 16‑ and 17‑year‑olds will be eligible to vote; the previous voting age was 18.
Kretschmann’s personal popularity helped the Greens in earlier campaigns—the 2021 posters that read “You know me” are still recalled as a symbol of his broad recognition—and his absence has turned this contest into a test of whether the Greens can hold a state they transformed over the past decade.