In Tshehaye displacement camp, a former public school in Shire, classrooms have been turned into cramped living quarters. Families sleep among cracked concrete walls and blackboards; tents crowd the dusty schoolyard.
A mother of three, who asked not to be named, sits outside one shelter. She was first driven from her home when fighting broke out between Ethiopia’s federal forces and Tigrayan fighters in 2020. After the Pretoria Agreement ended the main fighting in 2022 she tried to return to her village in western Tigray, an area still under the control of forces from neighbouring Amhara. Her land had been seized and life there was untenable, so eight months ago she fled again to Shire.
Her husband, she says, was detained “because he is Tigrayan.” Once released, the family went north to Shire. “If it were possible, I would like to live in peace and return home and cultivate my land as in the past,” she says. “It is very difficult to live like this with my children.”
Thousands at Tshehaye share that fear. Across Tigray some 800,000 people remain displaced and cannot go back to their land, especially in western districts. The unresolved displacement has become a flashpoint between the regional authorities and the federal government.
Camp life is harsh: water is scarce, food distributions are irregular, medicines are limited, and humanitarian conditions worsened after last year’s aid reductions. Families survive on meagre rations and informal support networks. “Shelters are built every month, with each new arrival of displaced people,” says Hagos Gebremichael, the camp coordinator and a former resident of western Tigray. New families keep arriving from western Tigray and from Sudan, where many sought refuge during the war. “Before, I lived a normal life there. Now I live here without support, without work, without anything. If no one takes me back home, I will not choose to die here. I would rather try to return, even if it costs me my life,” he adds.
Violence has flared again. In late January clashes broke out in Tselemti between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). Fighting was also reported near the southern border with Afar, involving the TDF and former TDF members amid internal divisions in the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Drone strikes during these confrontations recalled tactics used in the 2020–2022 war, and security analysts warn that localized skirmishes could spread if political tensions rise.
In mid-February the African Union Commission chair urged immediate steps to avert a return to large-scale fighting. Ethiopia’s foreign minister publicly called on Eritrea to withdraw troops from contested areas and warned of possible action. During the 2020–2022 war Eritrean forces fought alongside the federal army against Tigrayan forces; accusations of outside interference and shifting regional alignments have deepened mistrust. Videos circulating online show troop movements near border zones. Tigrayan officials deny any formal alliance with Eritrea but say they would defend themselves if the peace deal collapses, a stance that could reshape lines of battle.
Any renewed confrontation involving Ethiopia and Eritrea would likely be fought on Tigrayan soil. The recent tensions have already changed everyday life: flights to Tigray were suspended for five days in late January after federal operations that included drone strikes, prompting many residents to try to leave. “People were shocked by the recent tensions,” says a bus company manager in Shire, who asked to remain anonymous. Buses to Addis Ababa filled quickly as people sought to avoid being trapped again.
In Mekelle, the regional capital, anxiety is quieter but widespread. Long lines form outside banks and cash withdrawals are limited to small amounts. Drivers buy fuel on the black market as shortages and rising prices bite. Some goods have vanished from shelves while others are unaffordable amid persistent inflation. The city’s water system works intermittently. Seife, a former tour guide now doing irregular work, says the lack of cash makes life extremely difficult. “Businesses demand cash because they cannot rely on bank transfers anymore. Everything depends on cash,” he says. After the recent clashes he felt that fear return swiftly: “The fragile peace we have could collapse. The war could start again.”
The 2020–2022 war, by widely cited estimates, killed around 600,000 people and saw grave human rights violations and alleged war crimes. The Pretoria Agreement formally ended large-scale hostilities, but key provisions remain unimplemented: disarmament and reintegration are incomplete and Eritrean troops still hold positions in the north.
National elections are scheduled for June 1, but the TPLF remains excluded. Ethiopia’s House of Federation recently removed five districts from Tigray’s administrative oversight for the upcoming vote, a decision local officials say will inflame tensions further. Against this backdrop, worsening ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sharpened fears that Tigray could once again become the epicenter of war.
Near the Mekelle Martyrs Monument and Museum — a symbol of Tigray’s former political prominence — Berhane, the municipal gardener, tends hedges and waters flowers beneath the afternoon sun. The monument stands largely empty. “We are waiting to see if there will be another war,” he says. “I was born here. I want to build my life here. But I fear that something worse could happen.”