The war in Iran continues with no clear end in sight. President Trump has declared, “We won,” but has also indicated the U.S. could be in the fight for a while. How long this conflict will last is anybody’s guess, but there has been no “rally-’round-the-flag” effect for the president, and the longer it goes on the worse it could be politically.
Most Americans are skeptical of prolonged U.S. military intervention overseas after two decades in Iraq and Afghanistan — and so is much of Trump’s base. Foreign policy often ranks low on voters’ priority lists, yet military action that goes badly has, beyond its human cost, frequently imperiled presidents and left lasting political damage. The experiences of presidents from Harry Truman to Joe Biden illustrate how drawn-out or mismanaged conflicts can erode support.
Harry Truman
Truman’s presidency is often associated with the motto on his desk: “The buck stops here.” That responsibility also meant absorbing the political fallout from Korea. The United States fought in Korea for three years after the 1950 invasion, with more than 36,000 U.S. servicemembers killed. By February 1952 Truman was the worst-polling president of the last century, with an approval rating around 22%, as economic struggles and the stalemate in Korea weighed on his standing.
Lyndon B. Johnson
When Lyndon Johnson assumed the presidency after Kennedy’s assassination, his approval rating soared to about 78%. The Vietnam War, however, became a political and personal calamity. As U.S. involvement deepened and the conflict grew increasingly unpopular, Johnson’s approval plunged to roughly 35% by August 1968. Despite major domestic achievements, the war’s drag on his political capital helped lead him to decline running for reelection.
Jimmy Carter
The Iran hostage crisis of 1979-1981 warped Carter’s presidency. Iranian students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 52 Americans for 444 days. The crisis initially produced a brief rally for Carter, who had been struggling with high inflation, energy shortages and unemployment. But a failed April 1980 rescue attempt — in which a U.S. helicopter crashed and eight servicemembers died — precipitated a sharp drop in his approval rating, from about 43% just before the mission to roughly 31% in June 1980, reinforcing perceptions of weak leadership. The hostages were released on the day Ronald Reagan was inaugurated.
George W. Bush
The Sept. 11 attacks transformed George W. Bush’s presidency, producing a massive rally in public support that pushed his approval toward 90%. Initial action in Afghanistan was widely backed, and Republicans even gained House seats in the 2002 midterms. But the 2003 invasion and prolonged occupation of Iraq became a political liability as the mission faltered and sectarian violence increased. Bush’s approval fell to around 31% by 2006 amid the Iraq civil war and fell further during the 2008 financial crisis, when it reached about 25%, contributing to his party’s loss of the White House.
Joe Biden
Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan aimed to end America’s longest war, but the chaotic exit in August 2021 undermined a central claim of his presidency: restoring competent leadership after the Trump era. Thirteen U.S. servicemembers were killed during the withdrawal, and public approval fell. Biden’s Gallup approval was about 56% in June 2021 and dropped in subsequent polls to the mid-40s and low 40s after the withdrawal, a decline that never fully reversed.
What this history shows
Wars and military commitments are not guaranteed to produce a rally effect, and when they turn into prolonged entanglements or end badly the political costs can be steep. Presidents may see quick boosts in support after sudden attacks or initial victories, but sustaining public backing requires clear objectives, competent execution, and credible exit strategies. Absent those, even leaders who start popular can see their political fortunes erode as human and financial costs mount and public patience wanes.