President Trump said late Wednesday that U.S. forces deployed in the Middle East will “remain in place” until an agreement with Iran is reached and implemented.
His comments came after a shaky start to a two-week ceasefire: Israel continued strikes in Lebanon that killed hundreds on Wednesday; Gulf Arab countries reported drone and missile attacks on oil refineries and power plants; and there were reports that Iran had shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for roughly 20% of the world’s fuel and goods. Markets felt the uncertainty on Thursday, erasing some gains from a day earlier as oil prices rose and stocks dipped. Brent crude was at about $97 per barrel, up roughly 2.4%.
Trump warned strikes on Iran would resume if Iran did not comply with “the REAL AGREEMENT reached.” “If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” he wrote on Truth Social. He also reiterated the deal would bar nuclear enrichment in Iran and keep the Strait of Hormuz open: “It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.”
The White House denied reports that Iran had closed the strait, calling them false and noting an uptick in traffic there on Wednesday.
Peace talks to resume, confusion over ceasefire terms
High-level talks between the U.S. and Iran are set to begin Saturday in Islamabad, brokered by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government helped mediate the two-week ceasefire. The White House said Vice President J.D. Vance will lead the U.S. delegation.
But confusion persists about the framework for those talks. Iran insists on a 10-point plan that includes full control over the Strait of Hormuz, removal of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrichment. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Iran’s 10-point proposal was “literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump.” Trump had earlier described an Iranian plan as “workable.”
Dispute over whether Lebanon is covered by the ceasefire remains unresolved. Israel’s prime minister’s office said the Israeli government supports Trump’s suspension of strikes against Iran for two weeks but that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon. Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif had announced the ceasefire would also take effect in Lebanon.
Hezbollah insisted the U.S.-Iran ceasefire includes Lebanon and warned that “if the Israeli enemy does not adhere” to it, “no party will commit to it, and there will be a response from the region, including Iran.” Iran condemned continued assaults on Lebanon and said the U.S. is responsible for stopping them. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted that “The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments,” sharing the Pakistani statement that included Lebanon.
Trump echoed Israel’s view when asked why Lebanon was not included, saying, “Because of Hezbollah. They were not included in the deal. That’ll get taken care of too.”
Lebanon mourns after deadly Israeli attacks
Lebanon observed a national day of mourning Thursday after the deadliest day of the current Israeli invasion. Lebanon’s civil defense said more than 250 people were killed Wednesday when Israeli strikes hit densely populated residential areas far from Hezbollah strongholds, including along Beirut’s seaside Corniche promenade. More than 1,160 people were reported wounded.
The Israeli military said it carried out its largest attack so far, with 100 strikes in 10 minutes in Beirut on Wednesday. Evacuation orders were issued for the capital’s suburbs, but central Beirut was also struck. The city has swelled with people fleeing the invasion in the south, which has displaced more than a million people.
On Thursday, Israel struck a bridge in Lebanon. Hezbollah, which had held its fire on the first day of the ceasefire, fired rockets into northern Israel. The International Committee of the Red Cross said it was outraged by attacks in densely populated urban areas. An Israeli military spokesperson, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, said Hezbollah has dispersed operations and “hide[s] behind civilian locations,” taking advantage of warnings to civilians.
Strait of Hormuz: confusion and stalled shipping
Trump has emphasized that the deal depends on free movement through the Strait of Hormuz to ease the global energy crisis. The strait carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and is the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
Before the war, Iran allowed an average of 120 to 150 ships per day to pass. In the last five weeks, that traffic has largely halted. Despite a ceasefire term calling for Iran to reopen the strait for safe passage, more than a hundred ships remained effectively stalled after Tuesday’s announcement.
Details about the strait’s status are unclear. Iran said it had stopped transit operations in response to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon; the White House rejected reports of a closure and said any such move would be unacceptable. Even if officially open, many ships stayed put out of caution. Ship owners, insurers and crews are seeking clarity as Iran has threatened to attack vessels transiting without permission.
Erik Broekhuizen, a U.S.-based ship broker and energy consultant with Poten & Partners, noted concern about Iran’s decentralized military command: “You don’t really know who to talk to, who is in charge, and whether all the sort of regional commanders have gotten the memo that the strait is open and they should stop attacking vessels.”
More than 20 ships have been attacked by Iran since the war began. Operators are also trying to understand Iran’s new fee system and how payments will be collected; analysts say several oil tanker operators reported paying at least $1 million to transit. An English-language VHF broadcast warned the hundreds of ships in and around the strait that they need permission before attempting to transit.
Lauren Frayer in Beirut and Jackie Northam in Washington, D.C. contributed to this report.