When Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan stepped out of a car and walked toward his host, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in June 2025, it was a truly historic moment. The two politicians shook hands and faced the cameras together. It was the first time a representative of the Armenian government had visited Turkey at the invitation of the Turkish head of state.
Turkey and Armenia share a land border almost 330 kilometers long, but enmity between the two countries dates back over a century. Relations have long been overshadowed by the 1915 massacre of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, which many Western countries recognized as genocide in 2016. Ankara’s stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict further deepened the rift: Turkey sided with Azerbaijan and closed the Turkish-Armenian border in 1993.
Peace agreement opens up new prospects
Since 2022 a cautious rapprochement has been underway. Armenia no longer insists that Ankara recognize the events of 1915 as a genocide. Also last year, Armenia signed a peace agreement with Azerbaijan that finally ended decades of war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Since then, Turkish companies have dared to hope for normalized relations and the opening of the border, closed for more than thirty years.
There are two border crossings from Turkey to Armenia: Alican in Igdir Province and Akyaka in Kars Province. Both have been closed since the first Nagorno-Karabakh war but, according to observers, could be reopened within months. Armenian media report their government has already made necessary preparations; on the Turkish side work is still in progress but at an advanced stage.
If the crossings opened before Armenia’s parliamentary elections in June, it would be a big win for Prime Minister Pashinyan, who has pursued reconciliation with Turkey and sought to bring Armenia closer to the West.
Alternative trade route through Georgia
Kaan Soyak, head of the Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council, says that because of the sealed border the two countries have traded indirectly for years. He estimates about $300–350 million passes between them via Georgia, roughly 99% consisting of goods transported from Turkey to Georgia then on to Armenia. Predominant goods include clothing, chemical products, foodstuffs, and raw precious metals.
Soyak believes bilateral trade could quickly rise to $1 billion with the border open, and anticipates rapid construction of logistics corridors, including energy and telecommunications links across the Caucasus. But the Iran war has delayed the countdown. Expansion of the conflict into the Gulf, Iraq, and Lebanon has raised fears of migration, slowing progress on plans to open the land border.
Anatolia hopes to boost tourism
Turkey’s eastern provinces — Kars, Igdir, Agri, Ardahan, and Van — lie close to the Armenian border and are among Anatolia’s poorest regions. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, they rank lowest in city GDP per capita. Locals therefore have high hopes for movement of goods and people, and visitors from Armenia and the Armenian diaspora. Many historical and religious sites on the Turkish side, such as the medieval Armenian city of Ani in Kars, could attract tourism if the border reopens.
Kadir Bozan, head of the Kars Chamber of Commerce and Industry, stresses the importance of the so-called “Trump Corridor.” The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, agreed as part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace plan, envisages a 43-kilometer road and rail corridor through Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan before continuing to Turkey. Construction of a 224-kilometer stretch of railway as part of the route began last August, intended to carry millions of passengers and tonnes of freight annually.
Transport corridor between China and Europe
The corridor is intended to strengthen the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and reduce transport times between China and Europe. Turkey views it as an opportunity to become a key global trade player. Bozan and others hope the Iran war will end soon so the region can flourish as a business and tourism center; Kars already has a popular train connection to Baku via Tbilisi.
People in Ardahan, which shares two border crossings with Georgia and lies about 20 kilometers from the Armenian border, also have high hopes. Cetin Demirci, head of the Ardahan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, believes the area could host new production facilities, factories, industrial areas, and warehouses, creating jobs and reviving the shrinking city.
Kamil Arslan, head of the Igdir Chamber of Commerce and Industry, is similarly optimistic. “Trade knows no nationalism,” he says — people want more than thirty years of enmity between Turkey and Armenia to end. Arslan expects foodstuffs, construction materials, textiles, and services to flow across the border again, and hopes to see Igdir’s famed sweet apricots traded as in the old days.
This article has been translated from German.