The fighting for Pokrovsk has dominated military reports in recent days. For Ukrainian forces, the entrenched combat along this front is decisive.
Some 21 months after Russia’s assault on Avdiivka, Russian units may be moving to seize Pokrovsk as a new logistical hub—an outcome that would be crucial to control of Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Before the 2022 invasion, Pokrovsk had about 60,000 residents and served as an important industrial and transport center in the Ukrainian-held Donbas; by mid-2025 only around 1,500 people remained.
Clashes on the city’s border with Dnipropetrovsk have raged for more than a year and have recently spilled into urban streets. Analysts describe the situation there as a “big gray area.” Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Research Institute, told Reuters that Russian sabotage units are pushing deep into the city’s northwest and north, though the full extent of control is unclear. He said Russia has notably reinforced its presence in the city over the past week—possibly adding 200–300 or more soldiers—and that increased numbers would translate into greater Russian control.
Marina Miron, an honorary researcher at King’s College London’s Centre for Military Ethics and Department of Defence Studies, said Ukraine’s main problem in Pokrovsk is being cut off from key logistics. Ukrainian troops are being resupplied by aerial and ground drones because conventional supply and casualty-evacuation routes have become too dangerous. “If you cannot supply the troops or evacuate casualties, it’s like a ticking time bomb,” she said.
Has Pokrovsk fallen? Markus Reisner, an Austrian Armed Forces colonel and military historian who has monitored the war since its outset, said Ukrainian forces have not simply abandoned the city. He argued Ukraine needs to establish a new defensive line beyond Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka and is trying to buy time by halting Russian advances. Reisner suggested, however, that Pokrovsk may already be lost to Russian forces.
Such a loss would carry major implications. Rob Lee noted Russia has not secured many large urban gains recently, so capturing Pokrovsk would be a significant Russian success in 2025 and politically valuable in media terms if taken by year’s end. While Russia did not achieve the full offensive breakthrough it sought over summer, Reisner said Kremlin forces have nonetheless made substantial territorial gains.
If Ukrainian forces are forced out, military experts warn Pokrovsk could serve as a central base for Russian operations in the region, much as it once did for Ukraine. Its high-rise and densely built areas could accommodate thousands of soldiers. Ukrainian units—drone operators, electronic-warfare teams and reconnaissance elements—would likely be pushed back into surrounding forests. Ukrainian observer Oleksandr Kovalenko told Reuters Pokrovsk would represent Russia’s first “operational-tactical” success since taking Avdiivka; until now, he said, Russia’s gains had been largely tactical, making the potential capture of Pokrovsk a disproportionate achievement given the resources and time expended.
Analysts outline two main scenarios if Ukraine withdraws: Putin could portray the capture as a domestic victory to bolster negotiations with Ukraine and the West, or he could interpret it as momentum to press further offensives—potentially targeting other Donetsk cities such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and threatening the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region.
Reisner said Kyiv is trying to push Russia toward negotiations by striking strategic targets deep in Russian territory and is seeking U.S. sales of long-range Tomahawk missiles to extend its strike capability. Despite heavy losses, Reisner added, Putin appears convinced he is on a path to victory.
This article was originally written in Ukrainian.
