Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi was set to meet US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Oman as Tehran looks for a way out of its current security predicament. Iranian reporting suggested talks would likely focus on a Russian-drafted package that might be acceptable to both Tehran and Washington, though details had not been independently confirmed.
Hamidreza Azizi, a scholar of Iranian foreign and security policy, said the proposals appeared fundamentally acceptable to Iran and seemed to have been shaped during a recent visit by Ali Larijani to Moscow. Russia, Azizi argued, wants to prevent a US‑Iran war that would destabilize the region but also insists Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons. Moscow sees potential gains: drawing a weakened Iran closer to Russia, politically assisting US President Trump to reach a deal, and marginalizing European influence in the Middle East.
Reports say Russia has proposed that state-owned Rosatom monitor and control limited uranium enrichment in Iran to ensure compliance with agreed limits. It is unclear whether Russia would handle Iran’s roughly 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium — a major sticking point since US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025. Some Iranian commentators noted the 60% enriched material may have been produced as leverage for sanctions relief and could be diluted.
US reporting indicated successful talks might run on two tracks: one addressing the nuclear program and another covering broader issues such as restrictions on Iran’s missile capabilities. Azizi suggested Iran’s missile program, rather than its nuclear program, has become the central point of contention. Kremlin-linked proposals reportedly include guarantees that Iran’s missiles would not be used to attack Israel or the United States, and President Vladimir Putin said he was prepared to mediate between Iran and Israel. Putin’s mediation bid serves Moscow’s interest in reviving influence in the Middle East, especially as the Ukraine war has weakened Russia’s position.
Whether Tehran would accept security guarantees for Israel is doubtful; Iran has historically threatened Israel and insists on retaining defensive capabilities. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has increased pressure on Tehran, saying any meaningful outcome must cover ballistic missiles, support for militant proxies, the nuclear program, and Iran’s domestic treatment of its people. US officials and analysts have criticized Trump for urging Iranian protesters to take over state institutions and then not providing concrete help.
Analysts note the US focus has broadened from nuclear and ballistic issues to Iran’s regional activities and support for allies and proxies — a larger geopolitical debate. Iran, however, appears motivated primarily by survival and averting immediate military confrontation. Azizi expressed skepticism about the talks’ prospects and their ability to produce lasting change: Tehran seeks an agreement to remove the immediate military threat and preserve the regime, but he does not expect a fundamental shift in foreign policy under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. With US carriers, warships, fighter jets, and troops deployed to the region, the risk of escalation remains.
This article was originally written in German.