A polar cold front has swept across Cuba, bringing near‑record lows — but the island’s immediate danger is an energy squeeze coming from the north. After US action in Venezuela that removed Nicolás Maduro from power, Washington has effectively choked off Caracas’s oil shipments to Havana. In late January, US President Donald Trump labelled Cuba “an unusual and extraordinary threat” to US national security and threatened tariffs on any country selling oil or petroleum products to the island.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel denounced the move as “fascist, criminal and genocidal,” but later said Havana was willing to talk with the US “without pressure or preconditions.” He has warned the country is “close to failing” and announced plans to ration energy.
On the streets, ordinary Cubans describe anxiety and frustration. “Trump is crazy, he wants to take away the very air that we breathe,” says Aleida, who runs a homestay in Havana. Others express a resigned uncertainty. Tourism‑dependent incomes have fallen and gasoline is now sold in foreign currency at dollar‑only stations, often after long queues. Blackouts are common — sometimes 10 to 15 hours, and now affecting Havana as well.
Bert Hoffmann, a researcher at Germany’s GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies, says daily life still looks superficially normal but that this masks a deeper emergency: “There’s a great normalization of crisis… The blackouts have increased, fuel is in even shorter supply, but it’s been fairly gradual.” He warns Cuba has “no prospects” of securing oil in the near term.
A turning point came on January 3, when Venezuela ceased being Cuba’s main oil supplier. Mexico, Cuba’s second‑largest supplier, also halted planned shipments in January. Since December, very few oil cargoes have reached the island. A one‑off tanker bought on the spot market and leaving from Lomé, Togo, was reportedly redirected to the Dominican Republic en route — an action Hoffmann attributes to US pressure. He argues that even shipments from other states such as Algeria, Angola, China or Vietnam would likely be blocked for the time being.
Cuba consumes roughly 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Historically about a quarter to a third came from Venezuela; Mexico supplied 6,000–12,000 bpd in 2025, with smaller volumes from Russia and Algeria. With these channels effectively curtailed, rumors circulated that fuel stocks could run out in February. The Financial Times estimated late January that remaining resources might be stretched another 15–20 days. Hoffmann says it is a matter of weeks before fuel runs out — with catastrophic consequences: tourists unable to move from beaches to airports, food unable to travel from farms to cities, and hospitals unable to run oxygen generators if trucks cannot deliver supplies.
Cuba’s capacity to substitute domestic or renewable energy is limited. Solar parks — expanded with Chinese support — cannot meet national demand. Electricity still depends largely on aging, accident‑prone thermal plants of Soviet design, and Cuba’s own heavy oil can cover only about 40% of overall energy consumption. That oil is poorly suited for many needs and is mainly used for power generation.
Mexico has offered humanitarian aid and is exploring diplomatic routes to supply oil, but its room for maneuver is constrained by deep economic ties to the United States and by the USMCA trade accord, which gives Washington leverage during a scheduled review. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has proposed mediating between Havana and Washington, but it is unclear what US officials might accept: some US policymakers, including Senator Marco Rubio, have been explicit about seeking regime change in Cuba.
Analysts note that Cuba’s principal value to Washington today is symbolic. The island represents an enduring challenge to the Monroe Doctrine mindset and to US influence in the hemisphere; some in Washington see a moment to exert maximum pressure. Hoffmann doubts which concessions Cuban leaders could realistically make that would satisfy US demands.
Havana says it has limited options. Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío told EFE that messages have been exchanged with Washington but that a formal bilateral negotiation is not underway. He said Cuba has prepared a contingency plan that will demand “a lot of work, creativity and sacrifice.”
Moscow has signalled a willingness to continue supplying oil. Russia’s ambassador to Havana, Viktor Koronelli, told RIA that Russian deliveries have occurred repeatedly in recent years and are expected to continue.
For now, ordinary Cubans brace for tougher times. The combination of dwindling fuel, fragile domestic generation, and international pressure threatens transport, food distribution and medical services within weeks if alternative supplies do not arrive. This article was originally written in German and translated by Maren Sass.