A polar cold front has pushed temperatures toward record lows across Cuba, but the island’s more immediate crisis is an energy squeeze coming from the north. After US moves in Venezuela that removed Nicolás Maduro from power, Washington has effectively choked off Caracas’s oil shipments to Havana. In late January, US President Donald Trump called Cuba ‘an unusual and extraordinary threat’ to US national security and warned of tariffs on any country supplying oil or petroleum products to the island.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel condemned the action as ‘fascist, criminal and genocidal,’ while also saying Havana would be open to talks ‘without pressure or preconditions.’ He has warned the country is ‘close to failing’ and announced plans to ration energy.
On the streets, people report fear and frustration. Aleida, who runs a homestay in Havana, says ‘Trump is crazy, he wants to take away the very air that we breathe.’ Others express resigned uncertainty. With tourism incomes down, gasoline is being sold in foreign currency at dollar‑only stations after long queues, and rolling blackouts — sometimes lasting 10 to 15 hours — are now affecting Havana as well.
Bert Hoffmann, a researcher at Germany’s GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies, says everyday life may look superficially normal but that masks a deeper emergency: ‘There’s a great normalization of crisis… The blackouts have increased, fuel is in even shorter supply, but it’s been fairly gradual.’ He warns Cuba has ‘no prospects’ of securing oil in the near term.
A key turning point came on January 3, when Venezuela ceased to be Cuba’s main oil supplier. Mexico, historically Cuba’s second‑largest supplier, also halted planned shipments in January. Since December, very few cargoes have reached the island. A one‑off tanker bought on the spot market in Lomé, Togo, was reportedly redirected to the Dominican Republic en route — an action Hoffmann attributes to US pressure. He argues that shipments from other potential suppliers such as Algeria, Angola, China or Vietnam would likely be blocked for the time being.
Cuba consumes roughly 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Historically about a quarter to a third of that came from Venezuela; Mexico supplied 6,000–12,000 bpd in 2025, with smaller volumes from Russia and Algeria. With those channels effectively curtailed, rumors spread that fuel stocks could be exhausted in February. The Financial Times estimated in late January that remaining resources might last another 15–20 days. Hoffmann says it is a matter of weeks before fuel runs out — with catastrophic consequences: tourists unable to reach airports, food unable to move from farms to cities, and hospitals at risk if oxygen generators cannot run because trucks cannot deliver supplies.
Cuba’s ability to substitute with domestic or renewable energy is limited. Solar parks expanded with Chinese support cannot meet national demand. Electricity still relies heavily on aging, accident‑prone thermal plants of Soviet design, and Cuba’s own heavy oil can cover only about 40% of overall energy consumption. That heavy oil is ill suited for many uses and is mainly burned for power generation.
Mexico has offered humanitarian aid and is exploring diplomatic routes to supply oil, but its options are constrained by deep economic ties to the United States and by the USMCA trade accord, which gives Washington leverage during scheduled reviews. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has proposed mediating between Havana and Washington, but it is unclear what terms US officials might accept: some US policymakers, including Senator Marco Rubio, have openly advocated regime change in Cuba.
Analysts note Cuba’s principal value to Washington today is symbolic. The island still represents a challenge to the Monroe Doctrine mindset and to US influence in the hemisphere, so some in Washington see an opportunity to exert maximum pressure. Hoffmann doubts which concessions Cuban leaders could realistically offer that would satisfy US demands.
Havana says its options are limited. Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío told EFE that messages have been exchanged with Washington but that a formal bilateral negotiation is not underway. He said Cuba has prepared a contingency plan that will require ‘a lot of work, creativity and sacrifice.’
Moscow has signalled willingness to continue supplying oil. Russia’s ambassador to Havana, Viktor Koronelli, told RIA that Russian deliveries have occurred repeatedly in recent years and are expected to carry on.
For now ordinary Cubans are bracing for tougher times. The combination of dwindling fuel, fragile domestic generation and international pressure threatens transport, food distribution and medical services within weeks if alternative supplies do not arrive. This article was originally written in German and translated by Maren Sass.