Abdoulaye Diop, Mali’s foreign minister, hosted Nick Checker, head of the US State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, on Monday to map a “new course” in relations between Washington and the junta-led country. Checker reaffirmed US respect for Mali’s sovereignty and, ahead of the visit, the bureau said the United States looked forward to “consulting with other governments in the region, including Burkina Faso and Niger, on shared security and economic interests.”
Between 2020 and 2023 the elected civilian presidents of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger were overthrown in successive coups, prompting the Biden administration to restrict US military cooperation. In October, Massad Boulos, senior adviser for Arab and African affairs under President Donald Trump, told Le Monde that democracy is “appreciated” but no longer a criterion for ties — a stance criticized by Reed Brody, a lawyer for Niger’s deposed president Mohamed Bazoum, who noted Bazoum has been detained in the presidential palace for more than 900 days.
Observers say US policy has shifted toward pragmatism. Ulf Laessing, director of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s Sahel program, said the Americans appear unconcerned about democracy in the Sahel for now. US officials say they want to correct “past policy missteps.”
Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have pared back relations with their former colonial power, France, and other Western partners, and have turned toward Russia. The three states also broke from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS to form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Some analysts welcome renewed US engagement, saying it gives the AES countries negotiating room and preserves African choice between competing global partners.
Dr. Gnaka Lagoke, a lecturer in history and Pan-African studies at Lincoln University, said US offers could benefit AES states and that Washington may use tensions with the EU to pursue its own interests. Laessing noted the military governments have a measure of popularity, particularly among young people who reject the old elites and see the juntas as a new identity.
In January, Burkina Faso’s military government dissolved all political parties — though activities had already been banned since the September 2022 coup. Interior Minister Emile Zerbo defended the move as necessary because the previous multitude of political groups clashed with public aspirations and strategic challenges, especially security. Moussa Diaw, a political scientist at Gaston Berger University in Senegal, said special regimes do not tolerate opposition and that Mali and Niger follow similar logic.
Security remains the overriding crisis. Mali has faced an insurgency since 2012, fighting groups such as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM). The juntas promised to curb violence, but attacks persist. Recent incidents include a JNIM assault that killed at least 15 drivers of a tanker convoy in Mali — reportedly punishment for breaking a fuel blockade intended to force shortages and economic disruption.
Russia is expanding its footprint in the Sahel, including deploying troops from its Africa Corps. In January, ISWAP claimed responsibility for an attack on Niamey’s airport. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the African Corps and the Armed Forces of Niger jointly repelled the attack, neutralized about 20 attackers and seized weapons. Moscow said it would continue to support regional security through training and assistance to national forces.
Against this backdrop, US diplomats see jihadist consolidation in the Sahel and say an offer of services to AES countries was made to explore conditions for American involvement in counterterrorism. Details were not disclosed. The AES countries are resource-rich — gold and lithium in Mali, uranium in Niger, and gold in Burkina Faso — leading analysts to speculate whether deeper security cooperation might be tied to economic interests. Laessing cautioned that while a quid pro quo of resources for military aid is unlikely in simple terms, corruption and insecurity have so far kept US mining companies largely away.
The European Union’s role is uneven. Julian Bergmann of the German Institute of Development and Sustainability said EU influence is constrained: France has largely withdrawn militarily from Mali but remains engaged in development, Germany and other member states retain some presence, while Sweden has pulled out. Bergmann argued Brussels could regain influence only through a common strategy, which requires political will across member states. Laessing said Europe is fragmented and absent from major crises, suggesting global power shifts in the Sahel remain uncertain.
How influence will realign among the United States, Russia, the EU and other global actors in the Sahel is still unclear as the region grapples with insurgency, military rule and competing external offers.
Eric Topona, Alida Tapsoba, Kossivi Tiassou and Sandrine Blanchard contributed reporting
This article was originally published in German
