A growing U.S. military buildup in the southern Caribbean off Venezuela has heightened speculation of a possible armed strike and raised fears of a broader South American crisis.
The Trump administration has concentrated warships and thousands of troops in the region and last Monday designated President Nicolás Maduro’s government as a foreign terrorist organization. President Trump has said he would be open to talks with Maduro while also suggesting the Venezuelan leader might not remain in power long.
Some Venezuelans, including opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, support U.S. intervention as a means to remove Maduro, whose authoritarian rule and economic mismanagement have driven millions to flee the country. But military action would be controversial at home and carries major risks.
Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group warned that imagining a quick, peaceful handover of power is unrealistic. Even if many Venezuelans oppose Maduro, a stable transition is far from guaranteed.
Trump first moved to oust Maduro during his first term, recognizing Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president in 2019. With Maduro still in place, the second Trump term has revived consideration of military options.
The most extreme measure would be a full-scale invasion similar to the 1989 U.S. operation in Panama. Experts say the current U.S. force in the Caribbean, including roughly 15,000 troops aboard a naval flotilla, would be insufficient to secure a nation the size of Venezuela, which contains mountains and Amazon rainforest. A larger invasion might quickly rout parts of the regular military, where many conscripts are poorly paid and might defect, but any occupation would likely meet fierce resistance from irregular forces.
Jeremy McDermott, co-director of Insight Crime, described an invasion as extremely complex and said armed pushback could be expected in Caracas and along borders. Potential opponents include pro-Maduro militias known as colectivos, Colombian guerrillas who operate inside Venezuela and support the regime, and civilians whom the government has armed and trained as a form of popular defense.
Desperation among some opposition figures is evident. Exiled prosecutor Zair Mundaray has said there is no other way, and Machado has issued a freedom manifesto calling for restored rights, market reforms and clean elections. Meanwhile, anti-government influencers have circulated fantasies, sometimes generated by AI, of Maduro being captured by U.S. forces.
Still, U.S. public opinion appears unconvinced. A CBS News/YouGov poll found 70 percent of Americans oppose military action in Venezuela, and only 13 percent view the country as a major threat to the United States. That skepticism would make a unilateral strike or occupation politically fraught, and opposition lawmaker Henrique Capriles questions whether U.S. publics and politicians would sustain a long operation.
The Trump administration may be hoping that military pressure prompts a palace coup among factions in Venezuela’s security services. But Maduro has insulated himself with loyalists and reportedly Cuban bodyguards, and analysts say the pressure campaign may have strengthened regime cohesion and intensified persecution of opponents, according to Caracas radio host Vladimir Villegas.
Removing Maduro would not automatically produce a stable democracy. Capriles notes Maduro’s control runs through government branches and local institutions, with United Socialist Party officials holding many municipal and state posts. Any post‑regime scenario would likely require substantial reconstruction and nation‑building aid—commitments the Trump administration has been reluctant to make.
The operation has been officially framed as an anti-narcotics mission, dubbed Operation Southern Spear, targeting drug trafficking in the Caribbean and suspected drug boats. Venezuelan analyst Benigno Alarcón argues that counterdrug actions alone do not justify the scale of the military buildup.
McDermott summed up the standoff as a giant game of chicken: Maduro can likely endure a prolonged naval presence off his coast, and Washington cannot keep a large portion of its fleet deployed indefinitely. Time, he argues, favors Maduro so long as he does not relent.