US Vice-President JD Vance is heading a high-stakes American delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iranian representatives after a fragile two-week ceasefire in the Middle East. Pakistan is hosting the negotiations, which Islamabad and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have described as a “make-or-break” opportunity for a longer-term truce; Sharif has pledged full support and urged citizens to pray for a successful outcome.
The US team arrives amid sharp rhetoric and mounting pressure. President Donald Trump has publicly warned of military strikes if talks fail, saying US warships are being rearmed and cautioning Tehran not to “play” Washington. He has also asserted Tehran is “militarily defeated,” predicted the Strait of Hormuz would soon be open, and argued Iran has limited leverage beyond that waterway. Former national security adviser John Bolton has criticized the administration’s approach, calling it panicked and warning of escalation risks.
Iran’s delegation, led by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi along with security, military, political and economic officials, has arrived in Islamabad. Iranian state media say Tehran will enter talks only if Washington accepts certain preconditions. Ghalibaf and other officials have highlighted two main demands: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets. Tehran has also signaled concern about whether any agreement will address wider regional issues, including Hezbollah and Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
The role of Lebanon in the agenda has been particularly contentious. Israel has rejected negotiating a ceasefire with Hezbollah and says its operations target Hezbollah infrastructure; Lebanon reports substantial civilian casualties. Lebanese authorities say Israeli strikes have killed at least 1,953 people since the fighting began. Separate reports cited waves of recent strikes that killed hundreds and injured many more. Israel has said it has killed scores of Hezbollah fighters in recent operations.
Humanitarian conditions in Lebanon are worsening, with the UN warning of a “perfect storm” as aid is hampered by safety concerns and funding shortfalls. Some religious sites have reopened during the pause in fighting: more than 100,000 worshippers attended Friday prayers at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque after earlier closures.
Pakistan has stepped up security in and around Islamabad ahead of the talks, prompting comparisons to a city on lockdown. Islamabad negotiated to host the meetings and is providing logistical and diplomatic support; officials emphasize the symbolic and practical stakes, framing the talks as decisive for a durable ceasefire.
Observers remain cautious. Analysts point to divisions within Iran’s political and military leadership that could complicate any deal, with hard-line factions reportedly resistant to concessions while other figures push for de-escalation. US statements have raised questions about verification and Iran’s nuclear capabilities, including concerns over deeply buried enriched uranium and uncertainties about Tehran’s declarations.
Alongside the Islamabad talks, Washington has begun separate diplomacy involving Lebanon and Israel to explore ceasefire terms and steps on Hezbollah’s disarmament. A US-mediated meeting in Washington between Beirut and Jerusalem is planned, even as Israel insists it will not negotiate a ceasefire directly with Hezbollah.
Religious and international leaders have urged restraint; Pope Leo XIV called for coexistence and dialogue, saying “God does not bless any conflict” and urging rejection of military solutions.
The Islamabad meetings will test whether intensive diplomacy can hold in the face of public threats, ongoing violence and internal political pressures. Pakistani officials and outside observers say the outcome could determine whether the fragile ceasefire becomes a lasting reduction in hostilities or collapses into wider conflict.