In recent days, commercial links long severed have begun to return to Venezuela: Spanish carrier Iberia resumed flights to Caracas and American Airlines announced plans to return. Paraguay is pushing to lift Venezuela’s suspension from the South American trade bloc Mercosur, an initiative its new industry minister said it aims to advance during Paraguay’s pro-tempore presidency. If successful, that move could affect the European Union’s wide-ranging free trade agreement with Mercosur, due to provisionally take effect on May 1.
Less than four months after then-president Nicolás Maduro was removed from power in a controversial military operation by the US, Venezuela’s economic picture has shifted markedly. The country, which holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, sees its oil industry as central to recovery after years of crippling sanctions from the US, EU and others. Long queues at gas stations have shortened or vanished, and Venezuela reported average monthly crude exports surpassing 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in March — the highest since September. In 2024 output averaged just over 893,000 bpd. That rise bucks a broader global trend: OPEC reported crude production dropped by 27% in March amid the US-Israeli war with Iran.
Energy firms are stepping up activity. Spain’s Repsol announced plans to resume operations after meetings between its executives and acting president Delcy Rodríguez, though it offered few details. US oil major Chevron said it will expand extraction operations following talks with Venezuelan officials. Rodríguez hailed deals that she said would boost production and direct revenue to benefit Venezuelans and Americans alike.
Chevron’s agreements with state-owned PDVSA included asset swaps that left the US company with nearly half of the joint venture Petroindependencia and granted rights to develop a new area in the Orinoco Belt, Venezuela’s vast oil-producing region.
But observers warn transparency is limited. Ronald Balza, head of economics and social sciences at Caracas’s Andrés Bello Catholic University, told DW that oil dealings are difficult for outsiders to monitor. The US has not provided regular transparent payments for Venezuelan oil deliveries, complicating forecasts for prices, employment and public spending.
Venezuela’s current interim government under Rodríguez has not been legitimized through a democratic process. Harvard economist Ricardo Hausmann described the situation as dictatorial in an interview with Madrid-based The Objective, saying US claims of control over Venezuela must be matched by guarantees of freedom, security and the rights of opposition figures like María Corina Machado. Machado, who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and later presented the medal to former US president Donald Trump as a symbolic gesture, remains in exile citing security concerns since the last disputed election.
Despite her absence, Machado campaigns for a radically pro-market agenda. Speaking at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, she told energy executives that under her vision “Venezuela is going fully private,” emphasizing that the state should set rules, enforce contracts and guarantee long-term certainty while stepping aside from commercial activity.
For now Rodríguez is the acting president and has been actively courting US and other foreign investors, attending international investment forums and loosening state regulations to attract private capital. Her outreach to financiers and moves to open the oil sector to private investors would have been unthinkable months earlier.
European companies are being watched for possible participation in reconstruction efforts. Local media have speculated that German industrial giant Siemens may be involved in rebuilding the power grid — a priority seen as essential to sustained economic growth and higher oil output. Paul Márquez of Fedecámaras in Zulia told Banca y Negocios that without stable electricity an increase in oil production would be impossible. Siemens said it is closely monitoring developments and assessing potential effects on its operations while prioritizing employee safety.
Venezuela now stands at a crossroads: newfound diplomatic and commercial openings and increasing oil exports have raised hopes, but opaque deals, unresolved political legitimacy and security concerns leave the country suspended between opportunity and uncertainty.
This article was originally published in German.