On a seemingly ordinary Thursday a 14-year-old entered a middle school in Kahramanmaras, in southern Turkey, and opened fire in two classrooms, killing eight students and a teacher. The attack came two days after another school shooting in Siverek, Sanliurfa province, where the gunman wounded 16 people before dying in a confrontation with police.
Such events can feel sudden, but experts say that impression is misleading. Mass shootings rarely erupt without a long, identifiable trajectory: a history of injury or trauma, growing grievance, planning, and missed opportunities for intervention.
The “snap” myth
A common misconception is that attackers “snap” unexpectedly. John Horgan, director of the Violent Extremism Research Group at Georgia State University, cautions against that view. Most perpetrators carry a background of persistent stressors—rejection, humiliation, loss—that accumulate over time. These pressures and prior traumas create a context in which a final crisis can trigger violence.
Mental illness is often overstated
Another frequent misunderstanding is to treat diagnosable mental illness as the primary cause. Forensic psychologist J. Reid Meloy, who consults with the FBI, says that explanation is usually too simplistic. Only a minority of attackers have a formal diagnosis at the time of the attack. Instead, many targeted killings stem from personal grievance—feelings of loss, shame, anger, and the belief that specific people or society are to blame—or from grievance combined with extremist ideas.
James Densley, a criminology professor, prefers to talk about a breakdown in mental wellness rather than clinical illness. A crisis of coping, not necessarily a diagnosable disorder, often precipitates violence. Conflating mental illness with violent behavior stigmatizes people who are not dangerous and distracts from the social and situational dynamics that matter.
How grievance hardens into violence
For most people, setbacks and humiliations pass without lingering. For some, however, a perceived wound—real or imagined—becomes central to identity. Densley describes a process of fixation: the grievance is endlessly ruminated on, grows in meaning, and solidifies into a story in which someone must pay. Horgan adds that this process commonly includes calculated preparation: research on targets, tactics, weapons, and sometimes online feedback from others who reinforce violent plans.
From fantasy to action
Many people entertain violent fantasies without acting on them; the crucial difference for attackers is commitment. In moments of acute crisis, many potential perpetrators become suicidal or start to model themselves on earlier attackers. When firearms are available, that identification can erode barriers to killing: the desire to die becomes intertwined with the desire to kill, turning fantasy into reality.
Warning signs and the possibility of prevention
The pattern of grievance and preparation leaves traces. In nearly every case researchers examine, someone observed changes: withdrawal from school or work, unusual social media posts, conspicuous fascination with weapons, or other atypical behaviors. Horgan calls these “leakage”—communications of intent that peers, family, or teachers are often best placed to notice but may dismiss as not serious.
Meloy emphasizes a key point: because targeted mass violence is statistically rare, precise prediction is difficult. But prediction is not the only way to reduce risk. When warning behaviors are recognized and acted on—through reporting, assessment, and support—many attacks can be disrupted.
Why some attacks target strangers
Not all mass violence follows the same pattern. Many homicides target known individuals, but public mass attacks often treat victims as interchangeable. Meloy notes that even assaults on strangers frequently involve a symbolic or historical link to the target or setting. Densley highlights that public mass violence is performative: it’s meant to be seen and remembered, to send a message. Psychologically and functionally, these attacks resemble terrorism more than private domestic homicide, even when no formal ideology is adopted.
Paths for intervention
Recognizing the long arc—from initial wound to fixation, planning, and leakage—offers concrete opportunities to intervene: take warning signs seriously, provide timely crisis support, restrict access to means, and interrupt online and social networks that normalize violent narratives. Schools, workplaces, families, and communities can help by noticing behavioral changes, reporting concerns to appropriate professionals, and offering nonjudgmental help to those in crisis.
Understanding that mass shootings usually follow a predictable escalation does not make them inevitable. It highlights where attention and resources can make a difference: early detection of warning behaviors, accessible mental-health and crisis services, and systems that take credible threats seriously without stigmatizing those who need help.